尿素周报：待发订单仍有支撑-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The daily production of the urea industry is expected to fluctuate around 21.5 - 220,000 tons. The upstream urea enterprise inventory continued to decline significantly. The demand side shows that the agricultural green - turning fertilizer demand is gradually ending, the compound fertilizer enterprise's operation rate has increased, mainly shipping previous orders, and the finished product inventory has decreased significantly. In the short term, due to low inventory pressure and downstream rigid demand replenishment, the price remains stable. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1,780 - 1,950 yuan/ton [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 2.1 This week's domestic urea market price - The domestic urea market price fluctuated narrowly this week [7]. 2.2 International urea price - The international urea price increased significantly [12]. 2.3 Urea production - The weekly production of urea was 1.4756 million tons (-2.88%), including 1.2282 million tons of coal - based urea production and 0.2474 million tons of gas - based urea production. The average daily production was 210,800 tons [21]. 2.4 Inventory - The urea enterprise inventory was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons compared with the previous period, showing a significant continuous decline. The port inventory was 169,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons compared with the previous period. The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 8.24 days, a slight decrease of 0.05 days compared with the previous period [30]. 2.5 Demand - The operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 51.24% (a month - on - month increase of 1.27%), the finished product inventory was 690,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 43,700 tons), and the operation rate continued to increase with obvious inventory reduction. The operation rate of melamine enterprises was 65.98% (a month - on - month increase of 6.67%), showing a month - on - month increase [33]. 2.6 Raw material end - The coal price was running strongly [35]. 2.8 Spread analysis - The 5 - 9 spread was weakly sorted, and the 05 basis changed little [43]. 2.10 Urea - related product spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the content