Guohai Securities·2026-03-30 10:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights effective cost control measures leading to resilient profitability for China Coal Energy (601898) [2]. - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 148.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 161.3 billion yuan in 2026, 170.2 billion yuan in 2027, and 179.1 billion yuan in 2028, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 6%, and 5% respectively [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 37.47 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of 5.40 billion yuan, up 13.0% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The total coal production for 2025 was 135.10 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while coal sales were 255.86 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year [6]. Coal Business - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2025 was 485 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 251.5 yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 48.1%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Chemical Business - The report indicates improvements in gross profit for urea and methanol, with urea sales volume increasing by 18.9% year-on-year [7]. - The sales price of urea was 1,752 yuan per ton, down 14.4% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost decreased by 21.7% year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high proportion of long-term contracts, ensuring stable performance, with new coal mines and chemical projects set to contribute to future growth [8][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 1.62 yuan, 1.79 yuan, and 1.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [9][10].