海尔智家：2025年业绩低于预期，公司提高股东回报；派息率吸引，维持买入-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) [2][7][12] Core Insights - The company has lowered its target price to HKD 30.10, reflecting a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HKD 21.88 [1][7] - Despite a disappointing performance in 2025, the company is committed to increasing shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio rising from 48% in 2024 to 55% in 2025, and a target of at least 58% in 2026 [6][7] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, global expansion, and high-end brand strategies to improve operational efficiency and mitigate margin pressures [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 302.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while net profit is expected to be RMB 19.55 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.4% [6][8] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 3.7% in 2026, reaching RMB 313.63 billion, with net profit expected to grow by 3.8% to RMB 20.30 billion [5][8] - The gross margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 26.1%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [6][8] Market and Operational Insights - Domestic market demand in China is expected to remain soft, with a projected revenue increase of only 3.1% to RMB 146.5 billion in 2025, while the fourth quarter is anticipated to see a decline of approximately 15% due to reduced government subsidies [6][7] - The high-end brand Casarte is expected to achieve double-digit growth, while the Leader brand is targeting younger consumers with a projected growth of 30% [6][7] - Internationally, the company expects an 8.3% increase in overseas revenue to RMB 155.8 billion in 2025, with significant growth in emerging markets such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East [6][7]