钢材：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market showed a volatile and weak pattern. Although the geopolitical conflict pushed up the oil price, which had a cost - side impact on black commodities, the industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had a situation of "decreasing supply and stable demand", with a slight contraction in production, a gentle recovery in demand, and a slowdown in inventory reduction speed. There were increasing doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season [2]. - In the short term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break through the volatile range. The strong cost and weak demand create a balance between long and short positions, and the price is likely to maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If the demand remains weak and the supply continues to grow, the accumulated inventory pressure in the market may drive the price center to move down, and the market still faces certain pressure risks. Attention should be paid to the intensity and sustainability of demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was volatile and weak. Geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, but industrial - level pressure was more direct. Construction steel had "decreasing supply and stable demand", with production slightly contracting, demand recovering gently, and inventory reduction slowing down. Doubts about the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season increased [2]. - In the short - term, the rebar market lacks a unilateral driver to break the volatile range. Strong cost and weak demand create a balance. The price is likely to have a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. If demand is weak and supply grows, inventory pressure may drive the price down. Monitor demand release in the next one or two weeks [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Production and Inventory Data: The daily average hot metal output of steel mills was 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. Rebar mill inventory was 219.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.04 million tons or - 7.21%. Rebar social inventory was 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or - 1.60%. Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 83.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons or - 1.31%. Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or - 1.84% [4]. - Market Data Charts: The report includes multiple charts related to the futures market (such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, etc.), the spot market (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis), and fundamental data (such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, and seasonal analysis of inventory) [6][13][17]