中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soda Ash - The supply - demand pressure of soda ash still exists. The supply is expected to increase as some previously overhauled devices will resume production, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a relatively high level in the same period. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand, and the high supply and high inventory strongly limit the price rebound space. If there is no significant reduction in supply, short - selling opportunities after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2. Glass - Attention should be paid to the dynamic of production line cold - repair under the condition of profit losses. Recently, there are many cold - repair production lines of float glass, and the supply has decreased significantly. The demand of downstream deep - processing enterprises is at a low level in the same period, and they mainly purchase based on rigid demand. The cost support expectation of glass has increased due to the rise in energy prices. The glass 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Views Summary 3.1.1. Soda Ash - Supply: The device operating rate is 81.87% (down 4.51% month - on - month), ammonia - soda process is 90.45% (unchanged month - on - month), and combined - soda process is 76.17% (down 3.81%); the weekly output is 77.54 tons (down 4.27 tons), light soda ash output is 36.80 tons (down 1.61 tons), and heavy soda ash output is 40.74 tons (down 2.66 tons) [6]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.73 tons (down 11.87 tons), light soda ash apparent demand is 38.45 tons (down 5.01 tons), and heavy soda ash apparent demand is 39.28 tons (down 6.86 tons) [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 185.19 tons (up 4.03 tons), light soda ash inventory is 94.66 tons (down 0.02 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 90.53 tons (up 1.46 tons) [6]. 3.1.2. Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 14.49 tons, down 0.62% compared with the 19th. There are 294 glass production lines in China, among which 207 are in production and 87 are cold - repaired and shut down. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87320 tons/day, down 4.87% month - on - month [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, down 814,000 heavy boxes month - on - month, a decrease of 1.09% month - on - month and an increase of 9.86% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.6 days, down 0.1 day compared with the previous period [8]. - Demand: As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.11 days, down 3.74% compared with before the festival and down 23.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2. Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1. Market Review - Spot Price - The domestic spot price of soda ash remained stable. As of March 26, 2026, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China is 1230 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton; in North China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 30 yuan/ton [14]. - The price of the main soda ash contract fluctuated weakly. As of March 26, 2026, the basis of soda ash in Shahe area is - 20 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month); the glass futures price was weakly sorted, and the basis of glass in Shahe area is - 76 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton month - on - month) [17]. - As of March 26, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of soda ash is - 83 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton month - on - month); the 5 - 9 spread of glass is - 148 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 189 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month) [22]. 3.2.2. Fundamental - Supply - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.54 tons (down 4.27 tons), light soda ash output is 36.80 tons (down 1.61 tons), and heavy soda ash output is 40.74 tons (down 2.66 tons). Some enterprise overhaul devices will resume, and the supply is expected to increase [28]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 81.87%, down 4.51% month - on - month. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate is 90.45%, unchanged month - on - month; the combined - soda capacity utilization rate is 76.17%, down 3.81% month - on - month [37]. 3.2.3. Fundamental - Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is 185.19 tons (up 4.03 tons), light soda ash inventory is 94.66 tons (down 0.02 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory is 90.53 tons (up 1.46 tons) [41]. 3.2.4. Fundamental - Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash is 77.73 tons, a decrease of 11.87 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for light soda ash is 38.45 tons, a decrease of 5.01 tons month - on - month, and the apparent demand for heavy soda ash is 39.28 tons, a decrease of 6.86 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for both light and heavy soda ash decreased month - on - month [45]. - There are 294 glass production lines in China, among which 207 are in production and 87 are cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass is 14.49 tons, down 0.62% compared with the 19th. This week, the national float glass output is 101.45 tons, down 0.77% month - on - month and down 8.47% year - on - year. The in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 87320 tons/day, down 4.87% month - on - month [47]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, down 814,000 heavy boxes month - on - month, a decrease of 1.09% month - on - month and an increase of 9.86% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.6 days, down 0.1 day compared with the previous period. As of March 16, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 6.11 days, down 3.74% compared with before the festival and down 23.6% year - on - year [52]. 3.2.5. Fundamental - Soda Ash Cost and Profit - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash is - 26.20 yuan/ton, down 0.90 yuan/ton month - on - month; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese combined - soda process soda ash is 215 yuan/ton, down 5.49% month - on - month [55].