玻璃、纯碱日报：日内走弱-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the rebound. The short - term is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The short - term is expected to have a weak and oscillating trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - The glass main contract opened high and went low, with an oscillating and weakening trend during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term oscillating signal. The intraday pressure is around the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 1050, and the support is around the lower track at 1025. The trading volume decreased by 259,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 49,385 lots. The intraday high was 1049, the low was 1033, and the closing price was 1040, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.39% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - There are still cold - repair plans for production lines in the near future, and the supply side may continue to decline. However, the recovery of downstream terminal demand is less than expected, and real - estate completion data suppresses the long - term demand expectation. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract faces the logic of returning to the fundamental delivery, and the influence of external news gradually weakens. It is expected that the short - term disk may continue wide - range oscillations [1]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract opened high and went low, with an oscillating and weakening trend during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band has three tracks going down, showing a short - term oscillating and weakening signal. The pressure is around the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 1230, and the support is around the previous low of 1200. The trading volume increased by 155,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 28,810 lots. The intraday high was 1234, the low was 1204, and the closing price was 1207, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.71% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1864,800 tons, an increase of 12,900 tons or 0.70% compared to last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash is 930,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous period, and heavy soda ash is 934,400 tons, an increase of 29,100 tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The core logic of soda ash is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs, providing support for the disk. The rigid demand for soda ash is weak due to the expected production reduction of float glass and the impact of the photovoltaic industry. At the same time, the daily production of soda ash remains high, and the supply pressure continues. As the main contract approaches the delivery month, it faces the delivery logic of returning to the weak - reality + high - inventory structural contradiction, increasing the risk of disk oscillation and adjustment [2].