山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.28%, Shanghai Silver up 2.80%, platinum up 2.66%, and palladium up 0.61%. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, volatile at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] - In the short - term, there are risks of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. The risk of the Iran war expanding is rising, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed will maintain the interest rate this month, indicating high uncertainty in the policy outlook due to the Iran war. The probability of an interest - rate hike within the year has increased, and the bet on interest - rate cuts has been postponed to 2027 [1] - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of a global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] - Price Data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4521.30 per ounce, up 3.30% from the previous day; London gold was at $4504.15 per ounce, up 1.07%. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1014.88 yuan per gram, up 1.62% [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions were 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 180,953 lots, up 7.02% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% [2] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4] - Price Data: Comex silver active contract closed at $69.77 per ounce, up 2.41% from the previous day; London silver was at $67.80 per ounce, up 0.75%. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,707 yuan per kilogram, up 1.25% [4] - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions were 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 3,508,275 lots, up 3.63% from the previous day. The total visible inventory was 37,948 tons, down 0.33% [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are necessary [6] - Price Data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% [7] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX platinum active contract positions were 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, unchanged [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are required [8] - Price Data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% [8] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX palladium active contract positions were 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% [8] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary Attributes: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are 6,708.36 billion US dollars. The M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.88% [9] - Inflation in the US: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.83%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.06% [9] - US Economic Growth: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.10%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 0.70%. The unemployment rate is 4.40% [9] - US Labor Market: The monthly change in non - farm employment is - 92,000, the labor participation rate is 61.90%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80% [9] - US Real Estate Market: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, new home sales are 480,000 units, and new home starts are 1.043 million units [9] - US Consumption: Retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 2.08%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate is 5.25%, and the personal savings as a proportion of disposable income is 4.50% [11] - US Industry: The industrial production index year - on - year growth rate is 1.44%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.29% [11] - US Trade: Exports year - on - year growth rate is 9.68%, imports year - on - year growth rate is - 26.33%, and the trade balance is - 54.5 billion US dollars [11] - US Economic Surveys: ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, ISM services PMI index is 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, and Markit services PMI index is 51.10 [11] - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [11] - IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Proportion: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [11] - Geopolitical and Market Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 335.15, the VIX index is 31.05, the CRB commodity index is 368.91, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9184 [11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 350 - 375 range is relatively high in the near - term, but the probability of a rate cut gradually increases over time [13]