2月利率运行分析与展望：两会延续适度宽松货币政策基调，收益率或继续在1.8%附近窄幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 Government Work Report continues the moderately loose monetary policy tone, with fiscal and monetary policies coordinating to promote economic growth and price recovery. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to maintain a low - interest rate, fluctuating in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% [6]. - The current macro - economic situation is still in a weak recovery phase. The yield central tendency is difficult to rise significantly due to factors such as the seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI and moderate price recovery. However, geopolitical conflicts may push up inflation expectations and impact the bond market [6]. - The moderately loose monetary policy will continue. In the short term, the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low. The market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, and the impact on the bond market will be limited [6]. - Institutional behavior tends to be stable, providing phased support for the bond market. In the context of economic pressure, there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The long - end yield has limited upward space [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Hotspot Review - The 2026 Government Work Report continues the moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, consistent with the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The economic growth target is adjusted to 4.5% - 5%, making policy - making more flexible [7]. - The report emphasizes the coordinated efforts of various policies. The central bank has created a 100 - billion - yuan special fund for fiscal - financial cooperation to promote domestic demand and issued 800 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments. The government bond supply remains stable, and the central bank will ensure a stable market environment [8]. - With the increasing demand for investment promotion, domestic demand expansion, and structural adjustment, structural monetary policies will continue to play a role. The central bank plans to issue 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and 800 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments to support key areas [9][11]. February Interest Rate Operation Review Fund and Liquidity Monitoring - In February, the central bank's net open - market fund injection was 435.9 billion yuan, mainly in the form of medium - and long - term fund injections. The central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 50 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous month [14]. - Despite disturbances such as increased cross - festival fund demand and large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank's fund injection kept the fund interest rate stable, with the central tendency slightly decreasing. The spread between DR007 and R007 increased, indicating greater non - bank fund pressure [15]. Interest Rate Bond Yield Review - In February, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield first decreased and then increased. Before the Spring Festival, it dropped to a minimum of 1.77% due to factors such as sufficient liquidity and increased market expectations of a loose policy. After the festival, it rebounded and then decreased again, closing at 1.78% at the end of the month, a 3.59 - basis - point decrease from the end of the previous month [18]. - The term spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds first narrowed and then widened, with an overall narrowing compared to the previous month. The trading volume of interest - rate bonds decreased by 34.26% to 14.93 trillion yuan [18]. Outlook Weak Domestic Fundamentals Limit the Upward Space of Bond Yield - Affected by the Spring Festival, the manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The production and new order indexes declined, indicating a decrease in enterprise production and market demand. Although the CPI and PPI showed certain changes, the demand side is still weak, and the yield central tendency has limited upward power. However, geopolitical conflicts may impact the bond market [28]. The Government Work Report Sends a Loose Signal - The 2026 Government Work Report continues the moderately loose monetary policy. Considering the current stable operation of the bond market and the relatively fast CPI growth in February, interest rate cuts may be postponed. It is expected that there will be one interest rate cut of about 10 basis points in 2026, and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts may occur in the middle and fourth quarters [32]. Liquidity May Remain Abundant - Due to factors such as the return of funds after the festival and the decrease in government bond payment pressure, the fund gap pressure in March will decrease. The central bank is expected to increase net injections to maintain market liquidity. The fund situation is expected to be stable in the first half of March and may face some pressure in the second half [33]. Institutional Behavior Provides Phased Support - Bank behavior is relatively stable. Although the bill interest rate has risen, indicating an improvement in credit demand, the decline in inter - bank certificate of deposit yields and stable bank liabilities mean that bank bond - buying demand will not cause significant disturbances. Insurance institutions have sufficient bond - allocation potential in March, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the flow of funds to commodities may impact the bond market [37]. - Overall, the 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to maintain a low - interest rate and narrow - range fluctuation in the short term. Enterprises with financing needs are advised to choose the right time to issue bonds to reduce financing costs [42].