棉花、棉纱日报-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Disk Data: For cotton futures, the CF01 contract closed at 15930 with no change, the CF05 contract closed at 15385, down 10, and the CF09 contract closed at 15515, down 15. For棉纱 futures, the CY01 contract had no trading, the CY05 contract closed at 21515, up 80, and the CY09 contract closed at 21685, up 75 [2] - Spot Price Data: CCIndex3128B was 16823 yuan/ton, up 78; Cot A was 80.10 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 78.78, up 1.20; etc [2] - Spread Data: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 545, up 10; in 棉纱 inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 21515, down 80. For cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was (15930) with no change [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of March 26, 2026, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 741.0 million tons, an increase of 73.4 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sold lint cotton was 586.3 million tons, an increase of 174.6 million tons year - on - year [4] - On March 27, 2026, the spread between domestic and foreign cotton continued to converge. The domestic cotton production increase has been confirmed, and the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" for downstream is approaching the end. The cotton yarn market trading is okay, but spinning mills are cautious about restocking due to poor spinning profits [4] - In February 2026, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.311 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.59%. From January to February 2026, the total textile and clothing export value was 3.05 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.59% [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is basically determined, but there are rumors of production cuts in the new year, which support the futures price. The current commercial inventory is lower than last year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market is operating well, and yarn prices have been raised recently. However, the market is cautious about the future [6] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but it is weakening marginally. High - quality yarn prices are firm, while ordinary - quality yarn prices are stable or slightly decreasing. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival is an important observation point [8] - The sales of the all - cotton grey cloth market are gradually weakening. Except for home textile product orders, knitting and woven fabric orders are difficult to continue [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides charts such as the spread between domestic and foreign cotton prices under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [10][11][15]