鸡蛋日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3731, up 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3453, down 49; JD09 closed at 3789, down 16 [2]. - Cross - Month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 278, up 56; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 336, down 33; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 58, down 23 [2]. - Ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.01. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Most national mainstream prices remained stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged; the average price of corn was 2451 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3268 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.70 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was 15.29 yuan, up 0.98 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in sample enterprises in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. As of the week of March 19, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - Culled Chicken Situation: In the week of March 19, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 505 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - Inventory and Profit: As of March 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, the same as the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of egg - chicken farming on March 19 was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - Side: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8].