银河期货尿素日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the spot prices were stable. The daily output of the urea industry was at a high level, and the开工 rate increased compared with the same period last year. Although the international supply was tight due to the conflict in the Middle East, the impact on the domestic market was limited. The domestic demand was gradually released, and the urea enterprises' inventories started to decline. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and it was expected that urea would continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch were the Middle East situation and domestic policies [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1882 (+10/+0.53%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory prices were stable, with different price ranges in various regions. For example, Henan's ex - factory price was 1810 - 1830 yuan/ton, and Shandong's small - particle ex - factory price was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On March 30, the daily output of the urea industry was 21.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with the previous working day and 2.61 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate was 93.04%, a 7.26% increase compared with 85.78% in the same period last year [4] Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes were firm, the market sentiment was okay, but the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined. New orders were smoothly concluded, and the ex - factory quotes were expected to remain firm. In Henan, the market sentiment cooled, the ex - factory quotes were firm, but the order volume decreased, and the ex - factory quotes were also expected to remain firm. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were firm, the market atmosphere was average, and the ex - factory prices were expected to remain stable. Although some domestic plants were shut down for maintenance, the daily output was still high. The international supply was tight, but the impact on the domestic market was limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but procurement basically stopped. The urea enterprises' inventories started to decline after a large inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. Domestic demand was released, and the manufacturers' order receipts were okay. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and urea was expected to continue to fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Related Charts - The charts showed the historical data of urea's daily output, total output, coal - based and gas - based operating rates, port inventory, enterprise inventory, enterprise pre - orders, compound fertilizer demand, compound fertilizer and melamine operating rates, and the arrival volume in Northeast China from 2023 to 2026 [10][14]