——债券月度策略思考：二季度，做厚全年安全垫-20260330

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal growth, with expectations for a moderate increase in nominal GDP growth to around 5.3% in Q2, influenced by high oil prices and a stable inflation index [4][34][35] - Export performance is projected to show some short-term slowdown, but medium-term resilience is expected due to China's industrial chain advantages, which may help offset the impact of high oil prices on external demand [4][17][21] - The real estate market is characterized by a "small spring" effect, where volume increases are driven by price reductions, but the foundation for stabilization remains uncertain, particularly in April [4][22][27] Group 2 - Monetary conditions indicate limited probability for broad monetary easing, with banks potentially shifting their liability structures, leading to a stable funding environment [4][10][11] - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are improving, with manageable supply pressures and increased non-bank institutional participation, which is expected to enhance the overall market conditions [4][13][18] - The report suggests that Q2 typically presents a favorable environment for asset management products, indicating a good window for achieving higher portfolio returns [4][5][22] Group 3 - The bond market strategy focuses on maintaining a safety cushion in a "money-rich" environment, emphasizing small-scale trading opportunities and the exploration of excess yield spreads [4][6][7] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.75% and 1.85%, while the 30-year bond yield may see core fluctuations around 40-50 basis points [4][7][11] - Attention is drawn to the potential for yield compression and structural opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the expected increase in asset management product sizes in April [4][6][7]