2026年4月动力煤月报：动力煤或震荡偏强-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In March, the thermal coal market showed a stronger-than-expected performance during the off - season, with a slight upward shift in the price center [1][49] - The current thermal coal market is driven by three factors: supply recovery with some foreign trade shifting to the domestic market due to high foreign coal prices; demand with certain resilience as power plant daily consumption remained high during the off - season; and non - power demand (such as chemical and metallurgical industries) recovering due to geopolitical impacts [1][49] - In April, coal prices are expected to enter a relatively strong and volatile state. The market will be in a window of multi - factor game, with no prominent driving force but relatively strong, limited upward momentum for a single - side increase, and a low possibility of a sharp decline [2][49][52] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - 1.1 Price Review: In March, the domestic thermal coal spot market showed a strong performance during the off - season. International thermal coal market was also strong due to geopolitical conflicts. The "strong - outside, weak - inside" price pattern weakened the price advantage of imported coal and supported domestic coal prices [6] 2. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - influencing Factors 2.1 Supply Side - 2.1.1 Origin Situation: In March, the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. Production in Shaanxi increased, in Shanxi was relatively slow, and in Inner Mongolia was stable with a slight increase [11] - 2.1.2 Import Volume: In March, the imported thermal coal market was in a pattern of "weak supply and demand, price inversion". Import volume decreased due to factors such as the Indonesian Ramadan, rainy season, and high international freight costs [17] 2.2 Intermediate - link Transportation - 2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway: In February 2026, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 28.04 million tons, with a cumulative volume of 59.32 million tons [21] - 2.2.2 Bohai - Rim Ports: In March 2026, the inbound and outbound volumes of the seven major ports in the Bohai - Rim region increased compared with the same period last year [24] - 2.2.3 Shipping Situation: The dry bulk shipping market showed an upward - trending and volatile state. The domestic coastal freight rate increased, while the international shipping route was affected by the Middle East situation [29] 2.3 Demand Side - 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption: Total social electricity consumption continued to grow at a high rate, with the tertiary industry showing the most prominent growth [35] - 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure: The domestic power generation structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of clean energy increasing. The growth rate of new - energy power generation slowed down marginally [43] - 2.3.3 Non - power Industry Coal Demand: The main marginal increase in non - power industry coal demand was in the coal - chemical sector, and non - power demand increased due to geopolitical conflicts and increased demand in the coal - chemical industry [45] 3. Chapter 3: Conclusion - In March, the thermal coal market showed a stronger - than - expected performance during the off - season, and the price center shifted slightly upward. The market was driven by supply, demand, and non - power demand factors [49] - In April, coal prices are expected to enter a relatively strong and volatile state. The market will be in a multi - factor game window, with limited upward and downward momentum. Attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil price trends, Indonesian coal export policies, non - power demand, and domestic power plant replenishment rhythms [2][49][52]