【冠通期货研究报告】焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coke market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high - level comprehensive inventory. Although there is a clear growth expectation for molten iron and good demand for coke from steel mills, the market is expected to be short - term sideways, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20/40 moving averages. Also, pay attention to subsequent growth - stabilizing policies [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Inventory - As of March 27, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly by 4.18 tons to 90.05 tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports across the country increased significantly by 20.88 tons to 289.51 tons, approaching the 11 - month high; the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 3.49 tons to 691.67 tons [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants in the country dropped by 17 yuan to 21 yuan/ton. The profitability of coking enterprises in mainstream regions has declined. Coking enterprises in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong have a profit of over 70 yuan, while those in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi are still in the red [1] Downstream Demand - According to Mysteel's survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.25% to 81.03% month - on - month; the profitability rate increased by 0.87% to 43.29% month - on - month; the daily average molten iron output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of downstream steel mills increased by 8.48 tons to 782.41 tons week - on - week, and the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 42.51 tons to 1047.54 tons, both at high levels in recent years. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports across the country decreased by 2.93 tons to 478.10 tons, and the total social inventory of coking coal increased by 16.76 tons to 2530.85 tons week - on - week [2]