美伊冲突升级概率依然较大，能化依旧易涨难跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The probability of the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran remains high, and the energy and chemical sectors are still prone to rising and difficult to fall. The conflict has led to disruptions in the supply of crude oil and other energy - related products, affecting the prices and market trends of various chemical products [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Despite Trump's statement, the market doesn't believe it. The US - Iran conflict continues to escalate, with military actions increasing. The probability of a US ground operation against Iran is rising. The Strait of Hormuz blockade affects oil supply, and crude oil and energy - chemical products are expected to be strong [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It increased in volume today, with support at 700. The strategy is to hold the long position opened yesterday on the hourly cycle and move up the stop - profit to 725 [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic supply contraction is limited, but cost support is strengthening. Export performance is better than expected, and there is an expectation of further increase in exports. It is also regarded as strong [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It increased in volume today, with support at 9550. The strategy is to hold the long position and move up the stop - profit to 9900 [7]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The domestic petroleum benzene operating rate has dropped to 72.57%, and the supply contraction expectation is increasing. Overseas plants are also reducing production, and the import reduction expectation is rising. The cost of naphtha is strong, providing double - upward drive from the cost and supply sides [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It increased in volume today, with support at 8000. The strategy is to hold the long position and move up the stop - profit to 8620 [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is inverted, but the US - Iran conflict has no cost - side impact on natural rubber. Due to the recession expectation, natural rubber is traded with the recession expectation. The current price is at a high level in the past decade, and there is a high enthusiasm for rubber tapping. There are also a large number of industrial hedging positions, and the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea [12][14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with pressure at 16500. The strategy is to hold the short position with a stop - loss at 16500 [14]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The shortage of raw material butadiene leads to a sharp increase in spot prices, and the cost support is strong. Some plants are reducing production and undergoing maintenance due to losses. The cost and supply contraction drive the continuous rise of synthetic rubber. The main reason is the global shortage of butadiene caused by the US - Iran conflict [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with short - term support at 17450. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [18]. (6) PX - Logic: The domestic PX operating rate has slightly declined. The main impact on the supply side is the reduction of production in overseas Asian refineries, especially in South Korea. The import reduction is expected to intensify, and it will enter a significant de - stocking phase in the second quarter. Affected by the US - Israel - Iran conflict, the cost of naphtha drives and the supply reduction make PX prone to rising in the short term [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It oscillated today, with support at 9200. The strategy is to hold the long position with a stop - loss at 9200 [23]. (7) PTA - Logic: The domestic PTA plants have not significantly reduced production, and the operation rate remains high. It is currently a follow - up upward logic driven by cost. Although there is some negative feedback from downstream filament polyester, it is not the main logic. It is still prone to rising with the cost of crude oil in the short term [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It oscillated today, with support at 6260. The strategy is to hold the long position with a stop - loss at 6260 [25][27]. (8) PP - Logic: The global polyolefin supply is decreasing. Although the domestic downstream is resistant to high prices and there is an expectation of negative feedback, the overseas PP supply is tightening, and the export profit is expanding, with an increasing expectation of export volume. It is supported by both the cost and supply sides and runs strongly [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It oscillated today, with support at 8750. The strategy is to hold the long position with a stop - loss at 8750 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The domestic coal - to - methanol operating rate has rebounded to 79%, which is at a 5 - year high. Due to the continuation of the US - Iran conflict, methanol production and transportation in the Middle East have stagnated. Many methanol plants in Iran and other overseas countries are still shut down, and imports will shrink significantly in the second quarter. Port inventories are expected to accelerate de - stocking, and methanol is still regarded as strong [32]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with short - term support at 2980. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic oil - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has accelerated its decline, but the overall decline is limited due to the high coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate. Nearly 30% of the total supply comes from imports from Iran and the Middle East. The continuous US - Iran conflict intensifies the expectation of import reduction, supporting the high - level operation of prices [34]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It increased in volume today, with support at 4800. The strategy is to hold the long position with a stop - loss at 4800 [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The import of PE from the Middle East is blocked due to the Strait blockade, and the import reduction expectation in the second quarter is obvious. Overseas refineries are reducing production due to raw material shortages, and the global polyolefin supply is decreasing. Although the domestic downstream is resistant to high prices and there is an expectation of negative feedback, it is not the main logic at present. It is supported by both the cost and supply sides and runs strongly [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillatory structure. It oscillated today, with support at 8480. The strategy is to hold the long position with a stop - loss at 8480 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The production has dropped to 77.5 tons due to the maintenance of some plants, but the overall supply is still at a high level compared with previous years due to the large new production capacity in the second half of last year and the beginning of this year. The downstream float glass production has continued to decrease, and the demand is weak. The soda ash plant inventory has not decreased and remains at a high level. The oversupply pattern has not improved. There is an expectation of downward repair of the futures premium for the May contract due to the large inventory [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It decreased in volume today, with short - term pressure at 1255 - 1265. The strategy is to hold the short position with a stop - profit at 1255 - 1265 [39]. (13) PVC - Logic: The domestic supply and demand are still in surplus. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC is high, and the operating rate has rebounded to the highest level in the same period. The profit of ethylene - based PVC has turned negative due to the reduction of raw materials and the sharp increase in raw material prices, and the operating rate has dropped to a low level. The proportion of domestic ethylene - based PVC is less than 20%, with a low impact. The export expectation is enhanced due to the supply interruption of overseas ethylene plants, supporting the PVC price. It is treated as a short - term high - level oscillation [42]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. It decreased in volume today, with an oscillation range of 5530 - 6100. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [42].