兴业证券（601377）：财富管理、机构业务双轮联动，ROE同比改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its return on equity (ROE), with a year-on-year increase of 1.12 percentage points to 4.9% in 2025. The weighted average ROE is expected to continue improving, driven by strong growth in brokerage and proprietary trading revenues [5][6] - The company has adjusted its market trading volume and price fluctuation assumptions, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2026-2028. The projected net profit for 2026 is 3.3 billion yuan, representing a 17% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.8 for the years 2026-2028, indicating a safe margin in valuation as the company deepens its wealth management transformation and leverages its institutional business advantages [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.87 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year. The brokerage business generated net income of 2.94 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year, with a market share of 1.36% [6][7] - The investment income, including fair value gains and losses, reached 3.74 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 31% increase year-on-year. The self-operated investment return rate improved to 3.9% [7][8] - The company's total revenue for 2025 was 11.84 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.4% and a net margin of 24.2% [11] Future Projections - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 3.37 billion yuan in 2026, 3.74 billion yuan in 2027, and 4.2 billion yuan in 2028, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 16.6%, 11.8%, and 12.3% [8][11] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is 0.39 yuan, increasing to 0.49 yuan by 2028 [11]