铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillating trend. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, with increased volatility recently. The overall fundamentals are weak, but due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated during the day, closing at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 143,000 lots, the open interest was 371,000 lots, and the settled funds were 6.643 billion yuan. It is currently oscillating between the short - term support near 800 and the short - term resistance near 830 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 4 to 790, and Super Special powder rose 4 to 672. The main swap was at 107.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.7 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 22 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - The US - Iran conflict disrupts the shipping and arrival rhythm of overseas mines, and the Australian hurricane still affects shipping. High oil prices push up the shipping cost of iron ore, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is restricted, making it difficult to trade the overall supply - demand relaxation pressure of iron ore. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and the recent volatility may increase [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: Policy support continues, profit improvement is evident, and physical work volume shows a structural improvement. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 15.2% year - on - year, the profits of the manufacturing industry increased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% year - on - year. Real estate transactions have marginally recovered, but land transactions and the listing prices in first - tier cities are still weak. The issuance progress of special bonds is relatively fast, but the elasticity of infrastructure physical work volume may be lower than the nominal scale. Overall, the domestic macro situation is in a state of "continued policy support, marginal profit improvement, and slow demand recovery" [4] - Overseas: The US economy has not stalled, but the combination of "weak demand + high oil price risk" still limits the short - term turning space of the Federal Reserve. The overseas macro environment presents a pattern of "no stall in growth, persistent inflation disturbances, and limited policy space" [4] Viewpoint Summary - On the iron ore fundamentals, the supply side remains loose, the molten iron output on the demand side still has room for further recovery. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand. Port inventories have declined to some extent and shifted downstream. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [5]