软商品日报：震荡上行-20260330

Group 1: Cotton - The intention to plant cotton in 2026 has decreased, mainly due to the policy adjustment plan in Xinjiang, China's major cotton - producing area. The non - suitable cotton areas, areas with severe groundwater over - exploitation, newly reclaimed wasteland cotton areas, and low - yield and inefficient cotton areas will be reduced. The preliminary survey shows that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 may decline by 3% - 5% year - on - year [1] - Trump's visit to China is scheduled for May 14 - 15, 2026, which stabilizes Sino - US trade and there is an expectation of tariff reduction and US cotton purchase [1] - In the short term, cotton remains in a relatively strong oscillating trend. Pay attention to the final planting area of various countries in April [1] Group 2: Sugar - As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.25 million tons, an increase of 282,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cane crushing volume was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 million tons (2.21%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%) compared to the same period last year [2] - The estimated cost of processing and paying duties for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,431 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,643 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing and paying duties for Brazilian sugar within the quota compared to the spot price of Rizhao white sugar is 1,219 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 7 yuan/ton [2] - The rise of the outer - market raw sugar has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, raw sugar is gradually emerging from the trough. With the narrowing of import profits, it is estimated that the downward space for white sugar is gradually shrinking, and the bottom - building market is becoming clearer, with a possible subsequent oscillating upward trend [3]