天然橡胶日报：高位震荡-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material prices are firm during the low - production season, supply is expected to increase as the tapping season begins, demand recovers well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 30, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.24%. The market price of natural rubber declined. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,350 - 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnam 3L mixed rubber was 16,700 - 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume from January to February 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage positions support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the world will enter a new round of tapping season. The high raw material prices stimulate the enthusiasm for tapping, and the expectation of new rubber supply growth in the future is rising [2] 3. Demand - On March 27, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.30%, and that of all - steel tires was 70.77%, both higher than the average of the same period over the years. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, the downstream purchasing intention has increased, and the automobile export drive has exceeded expectations. There may be follow - up purchase orders. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. The high price of synthetic rubber stimulates some enterprises to increase the alternative purchase of natural rubber, and the demand side provides some support for prices in the short term [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 27, the inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 566,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 0.78% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area in Qingdao was 141,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 0.42% from the previous period [4]