螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Oscillating and Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term steel price is mainly oscillating and bullish. The fundamentals are currently supported by supply contraction and inventory reduction, giving it the impetus to rebound, but weak demand restricts the upside. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the demand recovery. If demand continues to pick up, steel prices are expected to start a trend - based rebound; if demand remains weak, steel prices will maintain an oscillating pattern [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 99,718 lots on Monday. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 616,727 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,133 in the short term, and the daily line was above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3,099 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,115, showing short - and medium - term strength [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 91 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.9787 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 295,600 tons. Production has been continuously declining, and the year - on - year decline is significant. Steel mills are actively reducing production [3] - Demand side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.2537 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 172,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 199,600 tons. The weekly demand has recovered month - on - month, but it is still weak year - on - year, and the demand repair is insufficient [3] - Inventory side: Social inventory was 6.4275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,600 tons. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing, but it is still higher than in previous years. The enthusiasm of end - users for purchasing is average. Steel mill inventory was 2.1916 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 170,400 tons. The steel mill inventory decreased on a weekly basis, and it is slightly higher year - on - year. The inventory pressure of steel mills has been marginally relieved. The total inventory was 8.6191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 275,000 tons. The total inventory decreased on a weekly basis, but there is still about a 5% inventory build - up year - on - year, and the inventory pressure remains [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Steel mills are actively reducing production, the supply side has significantly contracted, inventory has been continuously decreasing, the inventory - to - sales ratio has improved, and steel prices have bottom support [5] - Bearish factors: The end - user demand is weak year - on - year, the recovery is less than expected, the total inventory is still increasing year - on - year, and traders lack confidence, which restricts the upside of steel prices [5] Short - term View Summary - The main rebar contract is accelerating the shift of positions, and it is estimated that the position shift will be completed in the near future. The outlook remains optimistically bullish. The lower support for the 05 contract is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the short term, the fundamentals are supported by supply contraction and inventory reduction, giving it the impetus to rebound, but weak demand restricts the upside [6]