政策预期反复叠加估值偏低，今日多晶硅价格回升-20260330

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, the polysilicon price rebounded due to repeated policy expectations and low valuations. The price of the main contract rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton, driven by policy - end guidance. The "anti - involution" policy expectations are still there [2][3]. - In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the cost range under the pattern of repeated policy expectations and weak demand. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy orientation and the progress of supply going overseas. If production cuts continue, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally. In the long - term, the price of polysilicon will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The price of the main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton today, mainly driven by policy - end. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation's statements on preventing disorderly and "involution - type" competition in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields formed an echo, promoting the price rebound [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Under the pressure of high inventory, most silicon - material enterprises are still in a state of production reduction. Although some enterprises have the willingness to resume production, the overall output of polysilicon in April is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - Demand side: Affected by weak terminal demand and the off - season at the beginning of the year, the production and operating rates of silicon wafers declined from January to February. In March, silicon - wafer production was boosted by the "export rush" window, but it is difficult to significantly increase in April. The overall production of battery cells and components is low, and downstream demand is still weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure of polysilicon is still large. Although the upstream has alleviated the supply through production reduction and control, the inventory accumulated over the years has not been significantly reduced, and it still takes time to consume inventory and ship the supply [4]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The polysilicon price has fallen significantly in the early stage and is currently in a low - valuation range. In the short term, it will fluctuate within the cost range; in the medium and long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. - Strategy: For downstream industrial enterprises, they can make appropriate low - price purchases. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now [5].