焦煤日报：震荡下跌-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market opened high and trended lower, experiencing a decline during the day. Although there are safety and environmental inspections, domestic mines have resumed production smoothly, with the current mining operation rate reaching 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from last week. The refined coal output decreased month - on - month, but downstream sales were smooth. After the coke price increase, coke enterprises actively purchased goods. The mine inventory decreased by 31.26 tons month - on - month, while the downstream coke enterprises' inventory increased by 42.51 tons and the steel mills' inventory increased by 8.48 tons. As the peak season approaches, the downstream starts to build up inventory, and the coking coal inventory begins to transfer downstream. The coke output increased month - on - month, steel mills' profitability recovered, the operation rate increased by 1.25%, and the weekly daily output of molten iron was 231.09 tons. The restricted - production steel mills gradually resumed production. The first round of coke price increase started last Friday and will be implemented on April 1st. The high - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, the trading activity has significantly decreased, and the market's acceptance of high prices is relatively low. After the conflict and negotiation between the US and Israel, the volatility of the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors decreased, and the substitution and conduction sentiment towards coking coal also weakened. Although the fundamentals have improved, there is still no upward driving force, and the upward trend of coking coal is limited. It is expected that as the geopolitical conflict eases, the price logic of the futures market will gradually return to the fundamentals. In the short term, if there is news to stimulate the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, it is expected that the coking coal price will also be reflected in the futures market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and trended lower, experiencing a decline during the day. Domestic mines have resumed production smoothly, with the current mining operation rate at 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from last week. The refined coal output decreased month - on - month, but downstream sales were smooth. After the coke price increase, coke enterprises actively purchased goods. The mine inventory decreased by 31.26 tons month - on - month, while the downstream coke enterprises' inventory increased by 42.51 tons and the steel mills' inventory increased by 8.48 tons. As the peak season approaches, the downstream starts to build up inventory, and the coking coal inventory begins to transfer downstream. The coke output increased month - on - month, steel mills' profitability recovered, the operation rate increased by 1.25%, and the weekly daily output of molten iron was 231.09 tons. The restricted - production steel mills gradually resumed production. The first round of coke price increase started last Friday and will be implemented on April 1st. The high - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and the market's acceptance of high prices is relatively low [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1214 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From March 21st - March 27th, the operation rate of 523 domestic sample mines for coking coal was 89.16%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 78.6 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons compared to the previous period [4] Demand Data - From March 21st - March 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.76 tons, an increase of 0.52 tons compared to the previous period; the daily average output of coke in 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons compared to the previous period [5]