棕油劲升、豆粕下挫

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and supply - demand factors. In contrast, soybean meal, eggs, and far - month hog contracts are likely to be weak. Cotton is in a high - level volatile state, and sugar has a large - amplitude shock [1][2][3][5][8][9][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is strongly rising. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 policy and the US EPA's increase in renewable diesel production are positive factors. From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, while exports increased by 50.6% month - on - month. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 9756 - 9800 [2]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal near - month main 2605 contract continues to decline, and the 2609 contract breaks through the support. The expected relaxation of Brazilian soybean import quarantine procedures will increase supply, while downstream demand is weak. The strategy is to close long positions in the 2609 contract and go short lightly [3]. Eggs - The egg main 2605 contract gaps down. After the Ching Ming Festival, demand weakens, and the high egg - laying hen inventory puts pressure on prices. The strategy is to close long positions [5]. Cotton - The cotton main 2609 contract first rises and then falls, running at a high level. The expected decrease in sowing area, the substitution advantage of cotton, and the peak consumption season support the price, but downstream replenishment is cautious. The strategy is to hold long positions with a support level of 15450 - 15480 [8]. Hogs - The hog main 2605 contract rebounds slightly at a low level, while far - month contracts decline significantly. The slow reduction of sows and weak demand lead to a supply - demand imbalance. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 2605 contract [9][11]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, with large fluctuations. Tensions in the Middle East push up oil prices, which may change the sugar - making ratio in major sugar - producing countries, but domestic supply is sufficient. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [12][15].