天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: Short - term market sentiment is gradually recovering, and it is one of the preferred long - positions. However, it lacks the momentum to break through upwards and may not return to the previous high. In the long - term, the demand for carbonate lithium will increase due to the strengthening long - term energy substitution logic under high oil prices [2][3]. - Polysilicon: The overall pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The price lacks support in the short - term, and there is still a possibility of further decline. To reverse the price, attention should be paid to supply - side factors, such as policy implementation or price - induced capacity reduction [8][12]. - Industrial Silicon: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of (8100, 8900) under cost support, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production, inventory reduction, and energy cost fluctuations [16]. 3. Summary by Industry Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium continued to rise, up 1.89% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 171620 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: Supply - side news has boosted price expectations. Australian lithium mines are reducing production due to diesel shortages, and Zimbabwe's lithium ore export ban will lead to supply contraction in May. The short - term supply - demand balance has been slightly broken, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to turn tight again [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, red band, and red ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight turned into a red ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 149040 yuan/ton [3]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - line Resonance Method" for intraday trading, with stop - loss set, and listen to the 8:30 morning live broadcast for specific operations [3]. - Key Points to Watch: Macro - market sentiment and mining - end news disturbances [4]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures rebounded strongly, up 2.44% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 36550 yuan/ton [7]. - Core Logic: The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Supply is expected to increase in March and further in April. Demand has declined after the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates in April, and the domestic social inventory is at a historical high [8]. - Price Reversal Conditions: Either the implementation of policies like the "Silicon Polysilicon Unit Product Energy Consumption Limit" or price - induced capacity reduction by second - tier enterprises [9][11]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight is a green ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing water level of 36750 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short - term, the silicon material price lacks support, and there is still a possibility of further decline [12]. - Key Points to Watch: Whether industry governance policies are introduced [13]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, down 1.68% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 8480 yuan/ton [16]. - Core Logic: In March, the increase in supply is expected to be greater than the increase in demand, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. High inventory and slow de - stocking continue to suppress prices, but it is expected to fluctuate under cost support [16]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and red ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight turned into a green ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 8770 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Suggestion: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of (8100, 8900). Pay attention to the resumption of production, inventory de - stocking, and energy cost fluctuations. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [16]. - Key Points to Watch: Whether industry governance policies are introduced [17].