地缘因素扰动，甲醇偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a volatile decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical risks, import contraction, and the pace of downstream resumption. The supply side was the core support, while the demand side was significantly affected by the holiday. The cost side had limited support for methanol. In March, methanol is expected to be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [8]. - In the second quarter of 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand repair, and risk mitigation. The domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of supply repair, demand verification, inventory re - balancing, and increased macro - constraints. The price is likely to fluctuate and decline at a high level [124]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Methanol Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a unilateral market of low - level volatility and a sharp pulse - like rise in March. The main contract started at around 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, fluctuated narrowly from January to February, and soared in March, with a maximum quarterly increase of over 50% [13]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around four main lines: import contraction, high domestic supply with limited elasticity, external - strong and internal - weak demand with rigid support, and a phased relief of inventory pressure. Macro and capital factors amplified the price fluctuations [14]. 3.2 Continued Divergence of the European and American Economies and a Decline in the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Since 2026, the European and American macro - economies have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy is stable with controllable inflation and resilient employment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery with greater growth pressure [17]. - In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of converging divergence and mild recovery. The US economy is likely to remain stable, and the eurozone may experience a slight recovery [20]. 3.3 Steady and Positive Development of the Domestic Economy from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new drivers grew rapidly, and employment and prices were generally stable [33]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy is expected to continue its steady and upward trend, with the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% more firmly based [36]. 3.4 Slight Increase in China's Coal Imports from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, the domestic coal market showed a pattern of stable domestic supply, high - then - low imports, and weak prices. The coal price decline led to a downward shift in the cost line of methanol, causing the methanol futures to decline [52]. - In Q2, coal prices are likely to continue the "weak and volatile, central - downward" trend, which will continue to suppress the methanol futures [56]. 3.5 Spring Maintenance and Demand Differentiation Lead to a Structural Switch in the Supply Rhythm - In March 2026, domestic methanol device operation was characterized by concentrated spring maintenance, significant regional differentiation, and stable - to - decreasing production. The overall device start - up rate and production decreased [61]. - In Q2, domestic methanol production is expected to show a trend of a slight increase in April and rapid growth from May to June. The annual production is expected to reach 93 - 95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% - 2% [64]. 3.6 Overseas Gas Restrictions and Geopolitics Resonate, Causing a Deep Contraction in Methanol Supply - In Q1 2026, overseas methanol device operation was dominated by the Middle East, with a weak global performance. The supply tightened due to winter gas restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal maintenance [72]. - In Q1, domestic methanol imports shrank significantly. Import contraction supported the methanol price. In Q2, overseas device operation remains uncertain, and the supply is unlikely to become quickly loose [76]. 3.7 Shrinking Profitability of Coal - to - Methanol in China in March 2026 - In February 2026, the profit of domestic methanol devices was generally weak due to high costs and weak demand. In March, the profit is expected to be marginally repaired and structurally improved [91]. 3.8 The Peak Season of Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in Q2 - In March 2026, the domestic methanol downstream market entered the spring resumption peak season, with traditional demand fully recovering and olefin demand remaining stable. In Q2, the downstream demand will continue to recover, with traditional and olefin demand driving together [104]. 3.9 Summary - In Q2 2026, the domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of four - fold game. The supply will be tight with domestic production increasing and imports remaining low. The demand will enter the peak - season repair stage, and the inventory will gradually decline [124]. - The methanol supply - demand will be in a tight balance, but the price will be over - valued and repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and decline in bands [126].