中东供应扰动加剧，铝价延续偏强

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - Due to the intensifying supply disturbances in the Middle East, aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The main contract in the second quarter is expected to be between 22,000 - 28,000 yuan per ton [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 28, UAE's ATaweelah was attacked by drones, and its facilities were severely damaged. On March 29, Bahrain Aluminium confirmed that its facilities were also attacked and damaged, intensifying the marginal supply disturbances in the Middle - East aluminum market. On March 30, SHFE aluminum opened strongly, with an intraday increase of nearly 4% and LME aluminum rising more than 5.5% [3]. Fundamental Situation - Macro - aspect: Geopolitical situation remains under observation, and risk appetite has temporarily stabilized [4]. - Supply - side: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased overseas supply disruptions. Some local plants have already cut production, and there is a risk of an expanded production - cut area. Mozal is under maintenance, and new projects in Indonesia are restricted by factors such as power. Overall, the supply - side constraints are strong [4]. - Demand - side: The weekly terminal operating rate in China has rebounded, and the spot remains at a discount. In the medium - term, there are still structural highlights, with high - growth in energy storage and power grid sectors. It is expected that the global supply - demand will remain tight in 2026 [4]. Summary and Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips. For spreads, continue to focus on the SHFE - LME aluminum spread arbitrage and the LME aluminum borrow strategy [5].