冠通期货研究报告：聚烯烃周报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that polyolefin prices will fluctuate strongly due to the improved domestic supply - demand pattern, the expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, the support from the Middle East situation, and the reduced supply expectation. However, the market is volatile, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the holiday and the development of the Middle East situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 decreased by 5 percentage points to around 80%, reaching a relatively low level, with new parking devices such as Qilu Petrochemical HDPE 1 line [13]. - PP开工率 dropped 3.5 percentage points to about 73%, also at a low level, with new parking devices including Ningxia Baofeng's third - line and Maoming Petrochemical's first - line [13]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of March 27, PE下游开工率 increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but had not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes [20]. - As of the week of March 27, PP下游开工率 rose 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. Downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was low, demand recovered slowly, and the downstream开工率 had not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawn wire increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14% [20]. 3.3 Plastic基差 The spot price increase exceeded the futures price increase, and the 05 contract basis rose to - 268 yuan/ton but remained at a relatively low level [22]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 3.5 tons week - on - week to 77 tons, 2.5 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [26]. 3.5 Market Analysis - The cost side: Although the US has sent negotiation signals, the Middle East conflict still exists, and the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low. The risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and crude oil prices have rebounded [3]. - Supply: New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans for the first quarter. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still leads to the expectation of reduced polyolefin supply [3]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of downstream BOPP films and agricultural films continued to rise [3]. - International influence: Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production, while the Middle East region's imports account for about 20% of domestic production. The Middle East's PE production capacity accounts for over 15% of the global total, and PP does not rely on Middle East imported goods, but its upstream depends on Middle East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The Middle East's PP production capacity accounts for 9% of the global total, and the Middle East's polyolefin exports account for about 25% of global polyolefin exports, affecting international prices and supply [3].