冠通期货研究报告：沥青周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large price fluctuations. The supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation. The market should control risks and participate cautiously [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil [4][21] - In April, the planned asphalt production in China is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) month - on - month and 764,000 tons (33.3%) year - on - year [4] - Next week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate is expected to decrease slightly. With the Strait of Hormuz still not navigable, the expectation of refinery production cuts increases [4] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [4][32] - In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in January - December 2025 but still showing a year - on - year negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) in January - February 2026 was 11.4%, a significant improvement from - 2.2% in January - December 2025 [32] 3.3 Market Conditions - The asphalt price in Shandong remained stable, and the basis was still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 202 yuan/ton [4][17] - The asphalt/原油 ratio rose to 6.12 [14] - As of the week of March 27, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.66% week - on - week to 126,000 tons, still at a low level [4][27] - As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [36]