点石成金：铜：仍需注意下调风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since March, the copper futures price has broken downward after fluctuations, which is quite different from the previous market expectation. The adjustment of copper price is mainly due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on market sentiment, high valuations, uncertainties in the computing power investment sector, and high inventory [1]. - The large - caliber visible inventory of copper has reached a high level, approaching the peak before the supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017. Although the inventory has decreased recently, it still reflects the problem of high inventory in the early stage. The downstream demand is picking up as the copper price drops [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, the logic of copper multi - allocation trading is basically stable, and the evolution of the war situation is the biggest variable. The copper price may continue to decline under the drag of risk - aversion sentiment or form strong support depending on the development of the situation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Reasons for Copper Price Adjustment - The Middle - East situation has entered the fifth week. The export of oil and gas and related commodities through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, and some oil, gas and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have been reduced or shut down, which has greatly affected the multi - allocation sentiment of precious metals and base metals. The financial market's risk - aversion sentiment has gradually increased, the oil and gas prices have soared, the dollar is relatively strong, and the market is concerned about the re - inflation risk, which has changed the liquidity expectation centered on the Fed's monetary policy and may affect the global economic growth expectation [1]. - The precious metals and non - ferrous metal sectors led by copper have experienced a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year. The futures prices and related stock market targets are at high premium levels. The increasing risk - aversion sentiment makes the high - valuation sectors vulnerable to selling pressure [1]. - The Middle - East situation has increased the uncertainty of the computing power investment sector, and the related premium trading has cooled down [1]. - Under the boost of the precious metal sector, the base metals have had obvious cumulative increases in the fourth quarter of last year and before the Spring Festival. The price digestion speed of the real - industry end is quite slow. There has been a significant increase in the visible inventory of base metals such as copper at home and abroad from the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival [1]. 2. Market Inventory and Downstream Demand - The large - caliber visible inventory of copper, composed of overseas exchange inventories, domestic social inventories and bonded - area inventories, has approached 1.5 million tons at the beginning of the year, reaching the peak level before the 2016 - 2017 supply - side reform and significantly higher than the low level during the epidemic and twice as high as the more than 700,000 tons in the spring of last year [2]. - The uncertainty of copper tariff increases during the Trump administration has gradually increased the premium of LME copper and led to a sharp increase in US copper inventories. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, with the cooling of the premium between the LME and domestic markets, the high copper price has delayed consumption, and there has been an obvious inflow into LME and domestic social inventories [2]. - The SMM copper social inventory jumped to 500,000 tons in the first week after the Spring Festival and reached a peak of 578,900 tons in early March. After the copper price effectively broke below the MA60 moving average and 98,000 last week, during the seasonal consumption peak season, the sentiment of mid - and downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices was very obvious, and the inventory has dropped to 403,100 tons on Monday this week. Third - party research shows that as the copper price drops to the range of 91,000 - 96,000, the operating rate of intermediate copper products such as copper rods has increased significantly [2]. 3. Short - term and Medium - to Long - term Operation Logic of Copper Price - In the medium - to long - term, the logic of copper multi - allocation trading is basically stable, and the evolution of the war situation is the biggest variable. If the uncontrollable situation is expected to last for 3 months, which has a negative impact on economic growth, the copper price may continue to decline under the drag of risk - aversion sentiment, such as breaking below the key technical support of 91,000. If significant phased results related to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz are achieved within the 1 - 3 - month negotiation period, the current decline level has strong support and is likely to form a situation similar to that during the impact of the equal - tariff policy last year. In the most extreme negative scenario, it is difficult for the copper price to give back the gains since the supply disruption of large mines [4]. - On the one hand, the global supply of copper concentrates is still in short supply in the first quarter, and the high sulfuric acid price has prevented the TC from falling further. The probability of domestic smelters reducing production due to maintenance is relatively high in the second quarter. On the other hand, the long - term war situation will support the copper price at the cost end, such as the use of acid in hydrometallurgy and diesel - powered mining equipment. In addition, even if the war affects the global economic growth rate, the investment in power, new energy and other related fields can still benefit from relatively high growth rates, and copper is the most core industrial metal [4].