原油：地缘因素仍在，原油偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand recovery, and risk mitigation. The gap between Europe and the US will narrow, and emerging markets will maintain relatively high growth. The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts will cause oil price fluctuations, and inflation expectations will rise. The core variables for the market are the rhythm of monetary policy, inflation path, and geopolitical evolution. The global economy is seeking re - balance in a weak recovery, with more resilience than downside risks [6][106]. - Domestic crude oil futures will enter a five - fold game stage of geopolitical premium convergence, supply restoration, demand peak - season verification, inventory re - balance, and recession expectation suppression. The extreme market in Q1 will end, and the price will return to a pattern dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with a high - level, volatile, and slightly downward trend. The core driver will shift from "supply panic" to "real - world constraints and rhythm game" [6]. - The supply side will change from "extremely tight" in Q1 to "marginally loose" in Q2. The demand side will enter a stage of peak - season recovery, structural differentiation, and limited resilience. The inventory side will shift from a low - level tight balance to slow inventory accumulation, which will be the core constraint on the market [6]. - Overall, in Q2, the supply - demand of domestic crude oil futures will be in a loose balance pattern of supply restoration, moderate demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak macro - environment. The price of the SC main contract may maintain a high - level wide - range volatile trend, and it is difficult to reproduce the unilateral sharp rise in Q1. The main tone is high - level volatility with a slowly declining center of gravity [6]. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic crude oil futures (SC) had an epic market with initial stable consolidation, an increase in February, an extreme pulse in March, and a high - level decline at the end of the quarter. The main contract started at about 450 yuan per barrel at the beginning of the year and soared to 838 yuan per barrel in mid - March due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of over 85% [11]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around five main lines: geopolitical supply shock, OPEC+ production cuts, domestic demand pattern, low inventory, and macro and capital factors [12]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations Fall, Europe and the US Economies Continue to Diverge - Since 2026, the macro - economies of Europe and the US have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy shows strong resilience, with stable consumption and investment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery, constrained by insufficient domestic demand and structural bottlenecks [17]. - The US economy runs smoothly, with features of "steady growth, controllable inflation, and employment resilience". The eurozone's economic growth pressure is greater than that of the US. In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of narrowing divergence and mild recovery [18][20]. China's Economy Develops Steadily and Well in January - February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new driving forces grew rapidly, employment and prices were generally stable [36]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy will continue the stable and upward trend, and the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% for the whole year is more likely to be achieved [38]. OPEC+ Resumes Production Increase Measures, Supply Tightness Expectations Remain - In January - February 2026, the Middle - East crude oil market was characterized by policy - stabilized production, tight supply, and rising geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ continued to control production in Q1, and the production of core Middle - East countries was stable [54]. - In March, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict deteriorated sharply, and the supply pattern changed from "policy - controlled production" to "physical supply interruption". In Q2, OPEC+'s small - scale production increase will be implemented, but it is difficult to offset the supply interruption. Oil prices will remain high and volatile [56]. Global Crude Oil Demand in Q2 is Relatively Resilient - In March 2026, global crude oil demand was about 104.5 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The demand growth was led by non - OECD countries, especially Asian emerging markets [75]. - In Q2, global crude oil demand will enter the peak - season growth stage, with a total demand of 105 - 106 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% - 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% - 1.5% [77]. The US - Iran War Persists, Middle - East Geopolitical Turmoil Intensifies - In March 2026, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalated to a high - intensity confrontation. It affected global security, trade, and financial markets, and led to a sharp rise in oil prices [80]. - In late March to early April, the Middle - East situation will remain tense, with high - frequency military attacks, uncertain shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a low probability of a short - term cease - fire [84]. China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Significantly in January - February 2026 - In January - February 2026, China's domestic crude oil market showed stable domestic supply, high - growth imports, and high - level processing. The domestic crude oil futures showed a high - level volatile and premium - converging trend [91]. - In Q2, global crude oil consumption will enter the traditional off - season. With global supply being loose and geopolitical premium receding, domestic crude oil prices are likely to return to a "fundamentals - dominated, volatile and slightly downward" trend [94]. International Crude Oil Non - Commercial Net Long Positions Rise Significantly in Q1 2026 - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil futures were 233,620 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 168,722 contracts, or 259.98%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures were 315,830 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 216,735 contracts, or 218.71% [101].