大宗商品周报：流动性收紧延续商品或继续震荡运行-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market declined 0.25% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 2.75%, while non - ferrous and black metals rose 2.14% and 0.55% respectively. The market may continue to oscillate due to factors such as the Middle East situation and liquidity tightening [2][7]. - The short - term commodity market is expected to be mainly volatile as the market repeatedly assesses the Middle East war situation, with high oil prices potentially lasting longer, a relatively strong US dollar, and continued liquidity tightening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Overall Performance: The commodity market fell 0.25% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 2.75%, agricultural products and energy - chemical products dropped 1.15% and 0.12% respectively, while non - ferrous and black metals increased 2.14% and 0.55% [2][7]. - Volatility: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly last week. Energy - chemical varieties mostly had obvious volatility increases, and gold and coking coal also saw large volatility increases [2][7]. - Fund Flow: The overall market scale continued to decline, with only the black sector having a small net inflow of funds, and the main outflow coming from the precious metals sector [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - Precious Metals: There is a huge difference in the cease - fire demands between the US and Iran, and the war is unlikely to end in the short term. The market sentiment fluctuates with information about the US - Iran war, and the sector will oscillate until the war situation becomes clearer [2]. - Non - ferrous Metals: The Middle East situation dominates trading. The strong US dollar index exerts pressure, but the resource attributes of non - ferrous varieties are prominent. With the price decline, downstream replenishment and production are active, and inventory inflection points appear, supporting prices. The short - term sector may oscillate [3]. - Black Metals: The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Blast furnaces are in the seasonal resumption of production, and hot metal output is rising, but poor steel mill profits limit the upward space. Iron ore shipments may be affected by the hurricane in Australia, and domestic port inventories are seasonally decreasing. Geopolitical conflicts support coking coal prices. The short - term sector may be stable [3]. - Energy: It is difficult for Iran and the US to reach a cease - fire agreement in the short term, and the situation escalated over the weekend. There is a large gap between the capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, oil prices have high two - way volatility risks, and in the long term, the key variable for oil price trends is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Chemical Industry: The turmoil in the Middle East strongly supports the cost side of the chemical sector. Asphalt and methanol may have strong upward elasticity and limited downward space. For olefins, high prices squeeze downstream profits, and demand is expected to weaken. For aromatic varieties, downstream polyester, printing and dyeing, and textile industries have slight capacity increases, but terminal follow - up is slow [4]. - Agricultural Products: Agricultural products fluctuate with crude oil. The expected El Niño climate model and the undetermined time of Trump's visit to China increase the sector's uncertainty. During the new crop planting period, the fertilizer market's contradictions need time to be observed, and the planting structure and crop yields need to be monitored. The short - term sector may oscillate [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of about 4% and a combined scale decline of 3.89%. The trading volume also decreased significantly [37]. - Other ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.35% return, the feed bean粕 ETF declined 2.82%, the non - ferrous metal ETF rose 1.43%, and the silver futures (LOF) declined 1.28% [37].