金货期业弘：中东局势支撑，铝价走势偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is supported by the Middle East situation and shows a strong trend. The uncertain production in the Middle East and the continuous rise in global energy prices have led to increases in LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices. The short - term aluminum price is volatile but tends to be strong, and the medium - term focus is on the Middle East situation and spot demand [3][4] Summary According to the Content Market Situation - The Middle East situation is still unclear, and market sentiment is weak. Today, crude oil has risen sharply, chemicals have all increased, pure benzene and methanol have reached new highs, caustic soda has dropped significantly, and silver and gold have increased. Non - ferrous metals have rebounded intraday, with aluminum and tin rising sharply [3] Aluminum Price - LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices have all increased. Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,725, and the spot price was 24,530, with a spot discount of - 195 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply, and the spot discount has narrowed to - 100 yuan, and spot transactions have improved significantly [3] Inventory - This week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has slightly decreased, the alumina inventory has decreased, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the LME inventory has decreased slightly. The spot demand in both the domestic and overseas markets has improved [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil and LME aluminum have risen sharply. LME aluminum is trading around $3,441. Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply and closed at 24,725, with a strong technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum have both increased, and market sentiment is optimistic [4] Market Outlook - In the short term, the aluminum price has risen sharply due to the intense conflict in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and the suspension of aluminum smelting in the Middle East. However, the poor global economic outlook exerts pressure, and the market fluctuates greatly, with a short - term volatile and strong trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and spot demand [4] Data Monitoring - From March 24th to March 30th, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated, the spot premium and discount have changed, the LME aluminum - futures and spot price difference has increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract has also fluctuated, reaching 7.39 on March 30th [5]