沪铜周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of ongoing negotiations and conflicts in the Middle East, market news and tense expectations have pushed up energy commodity prices, leading to increasing inflation expectations. There are bets on the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which would depress the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. - Fundamentally, the supply and demand of Shanghai copper were relatively loose in March, with high production and a recovering demand. However, production will decline after the second quarter due to smelter maintenance, while demand has entered the peak season, and the smooth reduction of inventory will support copper prices. In the long - term, the tight supply situation still supports copper prices. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Macro aspect: US President Trump is considering a high - risk military operation in Iran, which has pushed up oil prices and reignited inflation pressure. Some dovish officials have sent hawkish signals, suggesting that the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle that started in September 2024 may have ended. [3] - Supply aspect: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials will stop copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelter by the end of March 2027, shrinking global copper smelting capacity. The weekly capacity utilization rate of recycled copper smelting copper anode sample enterprises is 32.76%, a 2.76% decrease from the previous period. The refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelter profits have declined. In March, SMM's estimated output of electrolytic copper in China increased by 5.28 tons month - on - month (4.62% increase) and 6.51% year - on - year. Many copper smelters have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and after the import window opens, import volume may increase to offset the reduction in domestic smelter output. [3] - Demand aspect: As of February 2026, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.1739 million tons, a 9.07% decrease from the previous month. Since the "Golden March and Silver April" period, copper prices have been weak, and downstream purchase orders have increased. From January 1 to 22 in March, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 920,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease; the retail sales of the new - energy market were 495,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In February, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries decreased by 19.2% year - on - year, but the average battery capacity per vehicle increased by 29.2% year - on - year. [3] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The weekly high was 96,590 yuan/ton, the low was 91,500 yuan/ton, the weekly change was +1.26%, and the range amplitude was 5.37%. [6] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of March 27, the average spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 105 yuan/ton. With the continuous arrival of imported copper, domestic spot suppliers sold off, and the spot discount strengthened. However, it is expected that domestic supply will tighten this week, and with the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream enterprises have the intention to stock up, so the discount is expected to gradually narrow. [11] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of March 27, LME copper fell 0.11% this week, closing at $12,115/ton, with a spot premium of - $69/ton. [16] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Japan's Mitsubishi Materials will stop copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelter by the end of March 2027, shrinking global copper smelting capacity. [20] 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - The "Notice on Issues Concerning the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" (Document No. 770) has deepened the reform of the scrap copper industry, canceling measures such as tax rebates, land concessions, and financial subsidies in investment promotion by local governments. This has increased the production pressure on scrap - copper rod enterprises, and many enterprises in Jiangxi and Anhui have cut production or stopped production, resulting in a decrease in national scrap copper output. The weekly capacity utilization rate of recycled copper smelting copper anode sample enterprises is 32.76%, a 2.76% decrease from the previous period. This week, the refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelter profits have declined, weakening enterprise production enthusiasm. [25] 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of March 27, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $69.2/ton, and the RC fee was - 7.00 cents/pound. Overseas mines continue to tighten, and spot smelting fees continue to weaken. It is expected that copper smelters will start maintenance plans in the second quarter, and domestic electrolytic copper output may decline. Currently, smelters mainly rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and it is difficult to see an improvement in smelter spot processing fees in the short term. [30] 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In March, SMM's estimated output of electrolytic copper in China increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month (4.62% increase) and 6.51% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to March increased by 10.11% year - on - year, an increase of 322,800 tons. Although the copper mine resources are currently tight and recycled copper is restricted by policy issues, the production of electrolytic copper has not been directly affected, and copper prices continue to be under pressure. The increase in March production is mainly due to the previous production cuts by smelters and the addition of new smelters. Many copper smelters have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and after the import window opens, import volume may increase to offset the reduction in domestic smelter output. In February, China imported 320,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 24.5% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the cumulative import was 700,000 tons, a 16.1% year - on - year decrease. [35] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of February 2026, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.1739 million tons, a 9.07% decrease from the previous month. [39] 3.10 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a 15.9% year - on - year increase. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a 33.2% year - on - year increase; the installed capacity of wind power was 650 million kilowatts, a 22.8% year - on - year increase. From January to February, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in the country was 466 hours, a 39 - hour decrease from the same period last year. [47] 3.11 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - In February 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow, and the year - on - year decline continued. The number of cities with month - on - month increases or flat prices of newly built commercial residential buildings increased compared with the previous month. From January to February, the national real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were 92.93 million square meters, 961.2 billion yuan, 50.84 million square meters, and 63.2 million square meters respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 13.5%, - 11.1%, - 23.1%, and - 27.9% respectively. The growth rates were - 6.7%, +6.1%, - 2.7%, and - 9.8% respectively compared with the whole year of 2025. From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a 11.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 6.1 percentage points narrower than that of the whole year of the previous year; among them, residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, a 10.7% decrease, and the decline was 5.6 percentage points narrower. [52] 3.12 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - From March 1 to 22, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 920,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease; the retail sales of the new - energy market were 495,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In February, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries decreased by 19.2% year - on - year, but the average battery capacity per vehicle increased by 29.2% year - on - year. From January to February, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total sales of new vehicles. [56] 3.13 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of March 27, LME copper inventory increased by 17,900 tons to 360,300 tons this week, a 44.3% week - on - week increase and 67.34% higher year - on - year; COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 tons, a 0.04% week - on - week increase and 528.66% higher year - on - year. At the beginning of the year, Trump said that he would not consider imposing tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals for the time being, and copper was also included in the scope of the "temporary tariff suspension" discussion. As of last Friday, the COMEX - LME spread converged to - $154.47/ton, the copper siphon effect weakened, and the inventories of LME and COMEX increased simultaneously. [61] - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 237,100 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week decrease; the cathode copper inventory was 359,100 tons, a 12.64% week - on - week decrease. Since the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, copper prices have continued to decline, stimulating an increase in downstream purchasing sentiment, and copper inventory has been rapidly reduced. It is expected that with the progress of the peak season and the maintenance of domestic smelters in the second quarter, copper inventory will continue to decline. On March 26, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 72,600 tons, and the bonded area inventory continued to decline. Part of the warehouse goods were continuously cleared and imported into the country this week, and the inventory decreased due to the low inflow. [66]