原油周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. The market focuses on the Middle East situation. Although some measures have alleviated short - term supply pressure, they are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, there is still a risk of crude oil price surges, and frequent Middle East news greatly disturbs crude oil prices. It is recommended to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - When the deadline for Trump's "48 - hour" strike on Iranian power plants was approaching, Trump unilaterally extended the action by five days, causing crude oil prices to fall from high levels. However, the Middle East situation has not been substantially alleviated as Iran's attitude remains tough, and military actions continue. Crude oil prices rebounded after the fall [7] 3.2原油供给端 (Crude Oil Supply Side) - According to the OPEC latest monthly report, OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day from January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production decreased by 11,000 barrels per day to 13.657 million barrels per day in the week of March 20, and is near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained flat at 415.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has basically remained unchanged for five consecutive weeks [13] 3.3欧美成品油表现 (Performance of European and American Refined Oil Products) - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe fell by $4.5 per barrel and $6.5 per barrel respectively; the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe fell by $6.5 per barrel and $10 per barrel respectively. According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.678 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.38% compared with the same period last year, with a reduced over - the - same - period high. Gasoline weekly production increased by 2.25% to 8.924 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.796 million barrels per day, a 0.41% decrease compared with the same period last year. Diesel weekly production decreased by 18.89% to 3.568 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.933 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared with the same period last year. The decrease in diesel and other oil products led to a 7.56% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27][32] 3.4美国原油库存 (US Crude Oil Inventory) - On the evening of March 25, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20 increased by 6.926 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 477,000 barrels and 4.40% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.593 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 2.143 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 3.032 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.292 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 3.421 million barrels. The accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [41] 3.5地缘风险 (Geopolitical Risks) - On the 27th local time, the Israeli military launched air strikes on Iranian facilities, and the Iranian side retaliated on the 28th and 29th. The US military sent troops to the region, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched attacks on Israel, making the situation in the Middle East more tense [47]