流动性与机构行为跟踪：基金增长，大行买存单

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (March 23 - March 27), the fund slightly reduced leverage, and the large - scale banks decreased their average daily lending. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the spot bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with funds increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and short - term credit bonds. Large - scale banks increased their holdings of certificates of deposit, money market funds were the main sellers and net - sold certificates of deposit, securities firms and small and medium - sized banks mainly sold bonds, and insurance companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Fundamentals - Liquidity Injection: From March 23 - 27, there were 17.65 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. The central bank respectively injected 0.8 billion, 1.75 billion, 7.85 billion, 22.4 billion, and 14.62 billion yuan of reverse repurchase from Monday to Friday, with a total injection of 47.42 billion yuan. On Wednesday, there were 50 billion yuan of MLF injection and 45 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The net liquidity injection for the whole week was 28.19 billion yuan [4][7]. - Funding Rates: As of March 27, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.39%, 1.51%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, changing by - 0.9BP, 3BP, - 0.28BP, and 1.89BP compared to March 13, and were at the 18%, 9%, 14%, and 3% historical quantiles respectively [4][9]. - Large - scale Bank Lending: From March 23 - 27, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 24.99 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily lending scale of 5.4 trillion yuan and an average daily lending scale of 5.0 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.57 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [4][14]. - Pledged Repurchase: The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 7.94 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily volume of 8.29 trillion yuan, a 5.21% decrease compared to the previous week's daily average. The average daily proportion of overnight repurchase transactions was 88.4%, with a maximum daily proportion of 91.7%, a decrease of 2.83 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and as of March 27, it was at the 78.5% quantile [4][15]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - Issuance and Maturity of Certificates of Deposit: The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased week - on - week, with a total issuance of 77.052 billion yuan, an increase of 1.183 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The maturity volume was 69.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.466 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 7.23 billion yuan, an increase of 47.649 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the next week (March 30 - April 5), the maturity of certificates of deposit was 54.687 billion yuan [4][19][23]. - Issuance by Bank Type: The issuance scale of joint - stock banks was the highest. The issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 22.982 billion yuan, 26.255 billion yuan, 25.077 billion yuan, and 1.987 billion yuan respectively, changing by 10.525 billion yuan, 2.651 billion yuan, - 8.782 billion yuan, and - 1.29 billion yuan compared to the previous week [19]. - Issuance by Maturity Type: The 9M issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit were 7.975 billion yuan, 8.77 billion yuan, 13.193 billion yuan, 24.299 billion yuan, and 22.815 billion yuan respectively, changing by 2.543 billion yuan, 0.071 billion yuan, - 7.044 billion yuan, 9.114 billion yuan, and - 3.501 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The 9M certificates of deposit accounted for the highest proportion (31.54%) of the total issuance of certificates of deposit by different types of banks, mainly issued by state - owned banks; the 1Y maturity accounted for 29.61%, mainly issued by joint - stock banks [19]. - Issuance and Yield Rates: Most of the issuance rates of certificates of deposit of each bank increased, and the issuance rates of certificates of deposit of each maturity showed differentiation. As of March 27, the one - year issuance rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by 0.49BP, - 0.5BP, 4.37BP, and 7.12BP respectively compared to March 20, and were at the 0%, 1%, 0%, and 1% historical quantiles. The issuance rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit changed by 1.59BP, - 0.5BP, and - 0.65BP respectively compared to March 20, and were at the 3%, 0%, and 0% historical quantiles. The yield curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of March 27, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturity yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks were 1.42%, 1.46%, 1.48%, 1.51%, and 1.53% respectively, changing by - 4BP, - 1BP, 0.75BP, 1BP, and 1BP compared to March 20 [25][29]. - Shibor Rates: Most of the Shibor rates decreased. As of March 27, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates changed by - 0.2BP, 1.1BP, - 2.1BP, - 1.55BP, and - 1.3BP respectively compared to March 20, reaching 1.32%, 1.43%, 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.51% [27]. - Bill Rates: The bill rates decreased. As of March 27, the 3M direct discount rate of national - share bills, 3M transfer discount rate of national - share bills, 6M direct discount rate of national - share bills, and 6M transfer discount rate of national - share bills were 1.5%, 1.35%, 1.17%, and 1.11% respectively, changing by - 4BP, - 5BP, - 6BP, and - 6BP compared to March 20 [33]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Leverage Ratio: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly week - on - week. As of March 27, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 105.15% compared to March 20, and was at the 15.90% historical quantile since 2021. The leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.6%, 200.1%, 130.4%, and 104% respectively, changing by - 0.33BP, - 1.17BP, 1.1BP, and - 0.05BP compared to March 20, and were at the 15%, 11%, 82%, and 1% historical quantiles as of March 27 [35][37]. - Net Buying Duration: The net - buying weighted average duration of funds increased compared to the previous week, while that of insurance companies decreased. As of March 27, the net - buying weighted average duration (MA = 10) of funds was 1.36 years, recovering from - 1.13 years on March 20, and was at the 40% historical quantile. The net - buying weighted average duration (MA = 10) of wealth management products was 0.70 years, showing an increase compared to March 20, and was at the 49% historical quantile. The net - buying weighted average duration (MA = 10) of securities firms was - 1.35 years, showing an increase compared to March 20, and was at the 55% historical quantile. The net - buying weighted average duration (MA = 10) of insurance companies was 10.08 years, showing a decrease compared to March 20, and was at the 64% historical quantile [39]. - Duration of Bond Funds: The duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds recovered. As of March 27, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds recovered by 0.07 years to 3.10 years compared to March 20, and was at the 13% historical quantile since 2025. The duration of short - term pure - bond funds recovered by 0.10 years to 1.57 years compared to March 20, and was at the 56% historical quantile since 2025 [43].