国投期货能源日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of crude oil has a high risk of two-way fluctuations. In the long term, the core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic in the current market. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and crude oil-related products still have strong fundamental support [2] - The supply of asphalt has shrunk, and its price still mainly follows that of crude oil. The marginal improvement in fundamentals gives it sufficient upward flexibility and limited callback space [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The demands of Iran and the US for a ceasefire are difficult to reconcile, and the possibility of reaching a negotiation agreement in the short term is extremely low [1] - The US continues to send a large number of troops to the Middle East. Iran continues to attack US military bases and reaffirms its absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi armed forces threaten to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [1] - There is still a huge gap between the transport capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering, and there will be a need for replenishment later [1] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic in the current market. The conflict may further escalate, and the risk of interruption of oil transport channels has increased [2] - The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and crude oil-related products still have strong fundamental support [2] - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the performance of crude oil, but the crack spread has recently declined [2] - On the high-sulfur side, the panic buying sentiment in the shipping fuel market has subsided, but the maintenance capacity of refineries in the Middle East has increased, and the supply is difficult to quickly recover even if the strait resumes traffic [2] - On the low-sulfur side, the domestic main refineries' production plans are relatively high, which suppresses the crack spread trend. However, the supply from overseas refineries has tightened marginally, and the strong performance of refined oil crack spreads provides continuous support for the low-sulfur crack spread [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining and chemical enterprises are worried about future import raw material issues, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce the utilization rate of their production facilities. As a by-product, the supply of asphalt has correspondingly shrunk [3] - In the East and South China regions, most major refineries have stopped production and stopped supplying asphalt. The daily production of asphalt has dropped to 45,000 tons. The production plan for March has been revised down, and the refinery production in April has further declined to 1.58 million tons, which is the absolute low for the same period in recent years [3] - The shipment volume of sample refineries this week has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further widened [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is relatively low [3]