GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-30 12:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the company's debt pressure is gradually easing, maintaining positive operating cash flow, and supporting development through multiple channels [3]. - The company is projected to have a net asset value of approximately RMB 23.27 per share in 2026, with a target valuation of RMB 9.31 per share (HKD 10.58) based on a 0.4x PB valuation [29]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 97.31 billion, a year-on-year decline of 23.7% [5][17]. - Gross profit is expected to be RMB 9.435 billion, down 53.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.7%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from 2024 [5][17]. - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 1.022 billion, reflecting a 90.2% decline year-on-year [5][17]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 51.91 for 2025, decreasing to 40.85 by 2028 [5]. - The net debt ratio is expected to be 52.2% by the end of 2025, with an average borrowing cost of 3.51% [18]. Business Performance - The property development revenue for 2025 is expected to be RMB 70.54 billion, a decrease of approximately 30.0%, accounting for about 72.5% of total revenue [18]. - The operational business revenue is projected to grow by 1.6% year-on-year to RMB 14.19 billion, representing 14.6% of total revenue [18]. - The company’s service business revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% to RMB 12.58 billion, with a gross margin of 28.3% [18]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2025, the company’s total debt is projected to be RMB 152.81 billion, with a cash balance of RMB 29.2 billion [18]. - The cash short-term debt ratio, excluding restricted funds, is expected to be 1.14 times [18]. Market Data - The current share price is HKD 7.75, with a 52-week price range of HKD 7.75 to HKD 12.10 [7].