固定收益点评：“固收+”赎回压力如何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since March, geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a significant decline in the stock market. The weakening of equity assets has caused an obvious drawdown in "fixed - income +" products and increased redemption pressure [1][10]. - In the second half of 2025, institutions significantly increased their allocation to equity assets. The current increased redemption pressure of "fixed - income +" may lead to a negative feedback loop of institutional selling and accelerated asset decline [3][20]. - Through scenario testing, if there is no significant double - kill of stocks and bonds, the risk of a large - scale net value drawdown of wealth management products is limited, but there may be some active redemption pressure. First - tier and second - tier bond funds with more equity assets may face greater redemption pressure in the negative feedback, but the pressure is still controllable [4][5]. - If the redemption pressure of "fixed - income +" continues, it may lead to a reduction in equity asset allocation, a widening of the spread of Tier 2 capital bonds, and a narrowing of the term spread [6][49]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 March Onwards: Increased Redemption Pressure on "Fixed - Income +" - Since March, due to geopolitical conflicts, the global liquidity expectation has shifted, and the equity and convertible bond markets have significantly adjusted, causing the cumulative gains and losses of most broad - based indices to turn negative. The weakening of equity assets has led to an obvious drawdown in "fixed - income +" products and increased redemption pressure [1][10]. - From the beginning of the year to March 27, the cumulative yields of the short - term pure bond, medium - and long - term pure bond, first - tier bond fund, and second - tier bond fund indices were 0.45%, 0.64%, 0.65%, and 0.27% respectively. The proportions of short - term pure bond and medium - and long - term pure bond funds with negative cumulative returns since the beginning of the year were 3% and 7% respectively, while those of first - tier and second - tier bond funds were 10% and 27% respectively [1][12]. - Since the beginning of the year, medium - and short - term bonds have performed well. Most wealth management products have achieved positive returns, and the net - breaking rate is relatively low. As of March 27, 3.8% of wealth management products had negative cumulative yields, and the net - breaking rate of existing wealth management products was 1.1% [2][16]. 3.2 Background of "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: Institutional Increase in Equity Asset Allocation - In the second half of 2025, institutions significantly increased their allocation to equity assets, which may lead to a negative feedback loop of institutional selling and accelerated asset decline. - Wealth management may have increased its allocation to equity assets through public funds. Although the proportion of equity assets in wealth management assets decreased from 2.4% in the middle of 2025 to 1.9% at the end of the year, the proportion of public funds in wealth management assets increased from 4.2% to 5.1% [20]. - The proportion of pension's equity assets increased from 6.4% to 9.6%. In the second half of 2025, the net value of pension's equity assets increased by 773.5 billion yuan, while the net value of fixed - income assets decreased by 100.49 billion yuan [22]. - The proportion of insurance's stock investment increased from 8.5% to 9.7%. In the third and fourth quarters of 2025, the net asset scale of insurance's stocks increased by 552.5 billion yuan and 113.5 billion yuan respectively [26]. - In the second half of 2025, the scale of second - tier bond funds increased significantly, and the proportion of equity allocation increased from 11.64% to 13.93%. In total, institutions such as wealth management, insurance, pension, and second - tier bond funds increased their allocation to stocks by more than 700 billion yuan in the second half of 2025 [28][36]. 3.3 "Fixed - Income +" Net Value Drawdown Pressure Calculation 3.3.1 Redemption Pressure on Wealth Management Products - By assuming that non - cash - management fixed - income wealth management products have a bond - to - stock ratio of 92.5:7.5, and considering the bond's annualized coupon rate of 1.7% and a duration of 1.34 years, different market scenarios are simulated. - If bonds do not decline, wealth management products can basically maintain positive returns. Even if the stock market falls by 15%, the coupon income can generally offset the losses from the stock decline. In the case of a double - kill of stocks and bonds, wealth management products may experience a large - scale and significant drawdown. - Currently, the risk of large - scale passive redemption of wealth management products is relatively limited, but there is some active redemption pressure [4][40]. 3.3.2 Redemption Pressure on Funds - First - tier and second - tier bond funds with more equity assets may face greater redemption pressure in the negative feedback, but the pressure is still controllable. - In the most extreme scenario (the stock index falls by 20% and interest rates rise by 40bps), the proportion of second - tier bond funds with a drawdown of more than 5% is 32%, with a scale of about 2.4 trillion yuan, and the proportion of those with a drawdown of more than 3% will exceed 70%, reaching 3.6 trillion yuan. Even if bond interest rates remain unchanged, if the stock market retraces by 10%, 11.9% and 4.3% of second - tier bond funds will have drawdowns of more than 3% and 5% respectively, with scales of 726.3 billion and 158.4 billion yuan [5][44]. 3.4 Risks of "Fixed - Income +" Redemption - If the redemption of "fixed - income +" continues, it may lead to a reduction in equity asset allocation, a widening of the spread of Tier 2 capital bonds, and a narrowing of the term spread. The redemption of "fixed - income +" will directly lead to the selling of equity assets, which is a further negative for the stock market. Due to the strong liquidity of Tier 2 capital bonds, they are likely to be sold off in the market adjustment, leading to a widening of the spread. In addition, during periods of high redemption pressure, public funds may sell short - term and highly liquid bonds first, causing short - term interest rates to rise and the term spread to narrow [6][49].