软商品日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] 2. Core Views - For the cotton and cotton yarn market, the medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish, but concerns exist about potential over - advance consumption. Attention should be paid to subsequent order performance and new - season planting [2]. - In the sugar market, the 25/26 domestic sugar supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Regarding the apple market, the trading logic is centered on the demand side. Due to the low cost - effectiveness of Shandong apples, prices are struggling to rise, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. - In the 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber markets, geopolitical risks are rising, with cost as the main driver, demand relatively stable, and the strategy is to wait and see while seizing cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For the paper pulp market, short - term pulp prices are likely to remain in a low - level volatile range [6]. - In the timber market, low inventory provides some support for prices, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and spot basis was generally stable. Spot trading demand was weak, but cotton sales volume and progress were significantly better. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, with a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons more than the same period last year [2]. - The domestic peak season showed a good performance, with continuous increases in the startup rate, and good inventory digestion of cotton yarn and grey cloth. Recently, the sales of pure - cotton yarn have slowed down [2]. Sugar - Last week, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - to - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - production ratio in the new season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - In China, Guangxi's production progress this year is slow, with lower - than - expected output. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in Guangxi's output in the 25/26 season. This year, sugar mills have poor sales due to strong bearish market expectations [3]. Apple - The futures price oscillated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased. In Shandong, trading volume was low. Merchants in Shaanxi and Gansu were mainly looking for high - quality goods, but the remaining high - quality goods were scarce [4]. - As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple outbound volume was 294,500 tons, a 9.66% year - on - year decrease [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures price of natural rubber RU oscillated, the futures price of 20 - rubber NR rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber BR fell slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price generally rose. The overseas port price of butadiene fell slightly, and the raw material market price in Thailand mostly rose [5]. - Globally, the natural rubber supply has entered the increasing - production period from the low - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline significantly last week, with many plants under maintenance or reducing production loads. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, with increased production and transportation cost pressures for domestic tire enterprises. The inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline rapidly, while the inventory of semi - steel tires began to decline again [5]. - Last week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 685,600 tons, with increases in both bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 23,000 tons [5]. Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures price fell slightly, and the spot price remained stable. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase [6]. - Overseas pulp quotations were strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March, while that of coniferous pulp decreased. Domestic pulp demand was generally average, with cautious purchases of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and poor downstream base - paper prices and profits [6]. Timber - The futures price was strong. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume might be relatively low [7]. - Downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, an 8.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 27, the total national port timber inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease [7].