有色金属日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and geopolitical impacts [1][2][3] - Different metals face different market conditions, such as geopolitical risks, supply - side adjustments, and demand - side changes [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Shanghai copper warehouse receipts oscillate narrowly around 95,000 yuan, and LME enters daylight saving time [1] - Domestic spot copper is reported at 95,195 yuan, with the Shanghai copper discount narrowing to 55 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference is below 500 yuan [1] - SMM copper social inventory decreases by 24,300 tons to 403,100 tons [1] - The Middle East situation dominates market sentiment, and there is a risk of downward adjustment. The strong support is at 91,000 yuan in the short - term, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rises, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China being - 90 yuan, - 170 yuan, and - 185 yuan respectively, and the South China aluminum rod processing fee is near zero [2] - Aluminum ingot social inventory increases by 36,000 tons in the past week, while aluminum rod social inventory decreases by 36,000 tons [2] - Iranian attacks on aluminum plants in UAE and Bahrain lead to an increase in overseas shortage expectations, but the US - Iran war situation is hard to ease in the short - term, and systemic risks remain. Shanghai aluminum oscillates at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [2] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [2] - Domestic alumina operating capacity is temporarily stable, the over - supply situation has improved, and costs rise with sea freight. However, new alumina plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and the over - supply situation remains. In the short - term, alumina oscillates waiting for the clarity of Guinea's mining policy [2] Zinc - Imported ore TC turns negative again, and the LME zinc term structure changes, with the 0 - 3 month spot discount turning into a premium of $1.7/ton, indicating a strong fundamental situation under the tight overseas ore supply [3] - Domestic ore TC remains stable at a low level of 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and SMM zinc inventory drops to 248,200 tons. Affected by northern environmental protection, the short - term inventory reduction rhythm is a bit slow. Domestic downstream demand shows peak - season characteristics, export orders are okay, and production is the main drag [3] - Due to high macro - geopolitical uncertainties and the strong petrodollar rhythm, the zinc rebound space is limited. Shanghai zinc is expected to enter an interval oscillation between cost and consumption, with a price range of 22,500 - 23,700 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates, market trading volume declines, and positions slowly rise [6] - The strong US dollar exerts pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis, with light trading [6] - Due to macro uncertainties, the futures market oscillates weakly and is difficult to drive the spot market. Social inventory is still at a high level although it has decreased slightly, and the inventory reduction is slow. Steel mills maintain high production, resulting in high supply pressure [6] - The rebound of upstream prices drives up the mid - stream prices and provides cost support. In the short - term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. With high inventories of nickel and stainless steel, attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend is a weak oscillation [6] Tin - Shanghai tin slightly increases positions and rises in the afternoon session. There is no specific news, but there are concerns that Myanmar's mineral production may be negatively affected by diesel shortages, and the inventory can still last for about 1 month, with most of the Myanmar ore flowing to China [7] - Under the falling tin price, the Mysteel social inventory decreased by 1,379 tons to 9,656 tons last week, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 9,102 tons [7] - The upper amplitude of the tin market may expand to 380,000 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the short - term [7] Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium price continues to oscillate strongly, approaching the 170,000 - yuan mark, and market trading is active [8] - The inventory increased by 600 tons to 99,500 tons last week, but it has little impact on market sentiment, and the market mainly follows the rebound of non - ferrous metals [8] - Downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 46,700 tons, smelter inventory increased by 700 tons to 17,300 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 660 tons to 35,500 tons. Traders significantly control inventory scale [8] - As the export subsidy adjustment point approaches, attention should be paid to the demand change in April. In the short - term, the lithium price is expected to oscillate [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures close slightly lower [9] - The overall demand for industrial silicon is weak. The organic silicon emission reduction continues, the polysilicon market is at the bottom, and the export and aluminum alloy demand only increase moderately, which is difficult to offset the core demand reduction [9] - The upward price drive still depends on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of production self - discipline in the industry, the specific details have not been implemented. There is support at the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price rebounds from a low level. The SMM spot N - type dense material is quoted at 38,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - The domestic installation and export expectations are weak. There is a supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter of the industrial chain. The production decline of battery cells and components is significantly greater than that of the upstream. The OEM model leads to the reduction of silicon material inventory and the accumulation of silicon wafer inventory, and the price is under continuous pressure [10] - The futures price is in the cash - cost range of the main production capacity of second - tier enterprises. In the medium - term, the market still faces downward pressure [10]