Guoxin Securities·2026-03-30 14:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6] Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with 2025 revenue reaching 658.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 243 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year. In Q4, revenue and net profit grew by 10.1% and 5.3% respectively [2] - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.26%, with a year-on-year decline of 14 basis points, while the company has managed to control deposit costs effectively, resulting in a deposit interest rate decrease of 35 basis points to 1.64% [3] - The company has a robust asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.23%, down 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, and a provision coverage ratio of 200% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 658.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 243 billion yuan, and a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% [2] - The total assets at the end of the period were 38.36 trillion yuan, with total loans and deposits at 23.41 trillion yuan and 26.18 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9.4%, 8.7%, and 8.2% compared to the beginning of the year [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 to 250 billion yuan, 260.2 billion yuan, and 273.5 billion yuan, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.1%, and 5.1% [4][5] Asset Quality and Global Presence - The company has expanded its global presence, with overseas branches in 64 countries and regions, contributing significantly to its profits. The total deposits and loans from overseas institutions grew by 11.4% and 4.7% respectively [3] - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.23% and a provision coverage ratio of 200%, indicating strong risk management [4]