沥青周报：泥足深陷，低位运行-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - selling or short - selling on rallies within the range for the FG2605 contract [37] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second quarter, the glass futures market will continue the low - level operation trend of the first quarter. The FG2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of [900, 1200] yuan/ton [37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - Since the beginning of the year, the glass futures main contract has been in a low - level operation, with small overall fluctuations. Although the commodity market was bullish in the first quarter, the glass futures was not significantly boosted due to its own fundamental pressure [5] Production and Supply - Since the beginning of the year, there have been both cold repairs and ignitions of float glass production lines, and the daily melting volume in production has continued to decline. Currently, it has reached a low level in recent years, with a large gap compared to the same period in 2025 [12] - In Shahe, the coal - to - gas conversion has limited impact on the supply of float glass in the second quarter. There are four planned ignition production lines in Shahe this year, and three of them were ignited in March with a total daily melting volume of about 3000 tons/day, expected to produce glass in April [17] - Looking ahead to the second quarter, the downward space for the daily melting volume in production of float glass is limited, and the actual supply may increase from the low level as the production lines ignited in March are expected to produce glass in April [20] Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the real - estate completion end has faced multiple pressures, and the real - estate completion area from January to February continued to decline significantly year - on - year. Affected by this, the consumption of float glass from January to February decreased by about 2.7% compared to the same period last year [25] - After the Spring Festival this year, the downstream resumed work slowly, and the order release was insufficient. The real - estate completion end is in a downward channel, which will continue to drag down the demand for float glass in the short term [31] Inventory - In the first quarter, float glass manufacturers and mid - stream inventory accumulated significantly, and the current inventory level is much higher than the same period in previous years. It is difficult for manufacturers to destock in the short term [36]