资产配置日报：低量能，蓄力中-20260330

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current market is characterized by weak trading volume, suggesting a cautious stance among investors, with many adopting a hold strategy rather than actively trading [1][2] - The report highlights that the A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.05% on March 30, with a trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 63.8 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.81%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.84%, indicating a divergence in performance between sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The report notes that when trading volume decreases significantly, a rebound in the market is likely, with historical data suggesting that trading volume at the bottom typically ranges from 30% to 50% of the previous peak [2] - It is mentioned that the current trading volume has fallen to a range of 1.2 to 2 trillion yuan, which could signal an approaching turning point for a short-term rebound [2] - The report emphasizes that even if a rebound occurs, it is expected to be moderate due to the dominance of medium to long-term investors holding the majority of shares [2] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, the innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to rise, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index increasing by 1.09%, contrasting with the decline in the internet sector [3] - The report indicates that the innovative drug index has shown resilience, not breaking below previous lows, which suggests a relatively favorable chip structure compared to the internet sector [3] - The report also discusses the bond market, which has experienced a significant downward trend, with various bond yields declining as market sentiment shifts towards risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [4][5] Group 4 - The report highlights that the short-term and long-term bonds have shown strong performance, with yields on 2-5 year government bonds decreasing by 2-3 basis points [4] - It is noted that the central bank has increased its net reverse repurchase operations to 261.5 billion yuan, contributing to a supportive environment for the bond market [4][5] - The report mentions that the demand for medium to long-term bonds has increased, as indicated by a rise in the net subscription intensity index for bond funds [5] Group 5 - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with energy and metals experiencing upward trends, particularly in crude oil and precious metals [6][7] - The report states that crude oil prices have seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [7] - Additionally, the report notes that the market is reacting to geopolitical events, with fluctuations in oil prices influenced by developments in the Middle East [7][8]