江苏月度竞价企稳回暖，绿电边际改善信号强化-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [9] Core Insights - In April 2026, the overall trend in Jiangsu's centralized bidding showed a "reduced volume but increased price" pattern, with electricity prices experiencing marginal recovery despite the traditional coal off-season [2][11] - The average trading price of green certificates in February 2026 was 5.16 yuan per certificate, reflecting a 1.0% month-on-month increase, indicating strong demand resilience [7][11] - The report highlights a shift in China's new energy development from "scale-focused" to "structural adjustment and efficiency-focused" following the implementation of policy 136 [2][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector has shown a 20.22% increase over the past year, with a 14.00% rise since the beginning of 2026 [39][41] Electricity Supply and Demand - In the first two months of 2026, China's new installed capacity reached 65.91 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.23%, with significant growth in thermal power [11][12] - The report notes a clear differentiation in new installations between wind and solar power, with solar installations decreasing by 17.98% [2][11] Green Certificate Trading - In February 2026, the National Energy Administration issued 198 million green certificates, with a total trading volume of 75.48 million certificates, marking a 166% year-on-year increase [7][11] - The trading of green certificates accounted for 57.96% of the issued tradable scale, an increase of 8.85 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2025 [7][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Huadian International, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [7][11] - For new energy, it suggests companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7][11]