地缘“险维持”位，铂镍震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk remains high, causing platinum and palladium to fluctuate. The short - term market risk preference is low, and investors are advised to be cautious. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the valuation of platinum, but the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices. Palladium follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Price: On March 30, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.66% to 497.5 yuan/gram [1] - Main Logic: The US released positive signals of suspending strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and negotiating with Iran, but Trump's remarks increased uncertainty. Short - term geopolitical risk remains high, market volatility is large, and risk preference is low. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is pessimistic. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is conducive to platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects the market [2] - Outlook: The high energy prices push up the US inflation expectation and postpone the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate [2] Palladium - Price: On March 30, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [1] - Main Logic: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, there is structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3] - Outlook: The spot tightness has eased recently, and with macro - level suppression, it is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate [3] Indexes - Commodity Indexes: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [49] - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 30, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2615.59, with a daily increase of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.29%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.62% [51]