国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260331

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 31, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with various changes in other indicators like volume and prices of related products [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,370, with corresponding changes in volume and other related prices [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new revenue source for the mining industry [5] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [6] - Indonesia's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7] - Philippine miners expect the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore to double [8] Inventory Tracking - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [11] - On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2][14] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 171,620, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [15] Macro and Industry News - Germany's federal government passed a climate protection plan, adding €8 billion in the next 4 years to achieve emission reduction goals [16] - The International Civil Aviation Organization issued new regulations on lithium - battery power banks [17] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption of production by upstream enterprises [2][19] - Polysilicon: Continue to oscillate and bottom - out [2][19] Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,480 yuan/ton, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [19] - For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 36,550 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in volume and open interest [19] Macro and Industry News - The Cambodian government significantly reduced customs import and export taxes on various commodities, including solar systems and new - energy vehicles [19][21] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [17] - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [21]