现货装载承压，04窄幅震荡；远月跟随地缘波动：集运指数（欧线）

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Near - month contract 2604 shows narrow - range fluctuations, with 04 basically at par with the week 15 spot freight rate of 1700 - 1800 points. Attention should be paid to Maersk's week 16 cabin opening guidance in the next two days to determine the basic positioning of the second - phase delivery settlement price of 2604. Contract 2605 is expected to mainly follow the real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow the premium over 2604. Contracts 2606 and the far - month ones fluctuate widely following geopolitical situations. In the short - term, geopolitical tensions are difficult to truly subside, resulting in large unilateral fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities for trading at low prices can be appropriately considered [12]. Summary of Related Sections 1. Futures Contract Data - Contract Performance: EC2604 closed at 1,735.0 with a daily decline of 3.80%, trading volume of 9,616, and open interest of 9,262 with a decrease of 1,468. EC2606 closed at 2,385.0 with a daily decline of 1.73%, trading volume of 11,021, and open interest of 14,153 with an increase of 322. EC2608 closed at 2,403.0 with a daily decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 809, and open interest of 2,642 with a decrease of 155. EC2610 closed at 1,595.2 with a daily increase of 0.02%, trading volume of 1,148, and open interest of 7,164 with a decrease of 29 [1]. 2. Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: The European route index was 1,693.26 points with a weekly increase of 8.8%, and the US - West route index was 1,024.11 points with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route was $1,703/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 4.1%, and the US - West route was $2,352/FEU with a bi - weekly increase of 14.5% [1][2]. 3. Spot Freight Rates - European Route: Different carriers' spot freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'HC is $2,450 and for a 20'GP is $1,465, with a 38 - day voyage; MSC's price for a 40'HC is $2,852 and for a 20'GP is $1,706, with a 42 - day voyage [2]. 4. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index was 100.18, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.92 [2]. 5. Shipping Capacity - April: The latest weekly average shipping capacity was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In the first half - month of April, the week 15 MSC Britannia has returned to normal ship deployment. In the second half - month, 2 blank sailings are from COSCO (&OOCL). - May: The shipping capacity is 31.6 million TEU/week. The reduction in shipping capacity in the past week mainly comes from 3 sailings suspended by the PA Alliance after the May Day holiday. There are 4 pending voyages in May, 2 each from the OA and Gemini Alliances [10]. 6. Market Situation - Supply - side: The shipping capacity in April and May has certain fluctuations, mainly affected by blank sailings and pending voyages. - Demand - side: With the upgrade of PA ship group routes, there are differences in shipping company loading. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE with the largest cabin share. The market loading floor depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route. Currently, the second - week FE4 ONE is not fully loaded, which drags down the price of water - transfer ships in the second half - month [11]. - Valuation: In the first week of April (week 14), the freight rate center was close to $2,600/FEU. It is expected that the SCFIS index on April 6 may be in the range of 1,820 - 1,950 points. In the second week of April (week 15), the market freight rate center is expected to fall back to around $2,450/FEU, equivalent to about 1,700 - 1,800 points in SCFIS, which is included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the second half of April, the basis for price increases is weak in terms of supply - demand, and the increase in oil prices weakens the shipping companies' motivation to reduce prices in terms of operating costs [12]. 7. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous developments in the Iran - related geopolitical situation, including Iran's military actions, statements on the Strait of Hormuz, and the negotiation situation with the US. The threat in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb remains active. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which brings the risk of rising fuel costs for shipping companies [9][11][13].