国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news [2][4]. - Soybean oil investors should focus on the quarterly inventory and planting intention reports [2][4]. - Soybean meal is in an adjustment and oscillation state, waiting for the USDA report [2][12]. - Soybean No. 1 is in a rebound and oscillation state [2][12]. - Corn investors should pay attention to policy auctions [2][15]. - Sugar is in a strong - oscillating state [2][18]. - The domestic cotton market lacks new driving forces [2][22]. - Wait for opportunities to short eggs at high prices in the far - month contracts [2][27]. - The de - stocking of pigs is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down [2][30]. - Peanut investors should focus on oil mill purchases [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,930 yuan/ton with a 1.66% increase, and the night - session closing price was 10,004 yuan/ton with a 0.75% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,714 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,754 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92%. Indonesia plans to advance the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year. The US EPA determined the 2026 and 2027 renewable fuel standard annual obligation volumes, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel [5][6][9]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean No. 1 2605's daily - session closing price was 4574 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 4611 yuan/ton with a 0.96% increase. DCE soybean meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2937 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2921 yuan/ton with a 0.54% decrease [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 30, CBOT soybeans were in a narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 85.55 million acres in 2026, and the March 1 soybean inventory to be 2.067 billion bushels [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2605 was 2,346 yuan/ton with a 0.93% decrease, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of C2607 was 2,366 yuan/ton with a 0.88% decrease, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.04% [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of northern corn shipped to ports decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in the northeast and north China was stable with a slight decline [16]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 15.84 cents/pound with a 0.09 increase. The mainstream spot price was 5460 yuan/ton with a 10 increase [18]. - Macro and Industry News: As of March 15, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 520,000 tons of sugar from January - February. The ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season [18][19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2605's daily - session closing price was 15,385 yuan/ton with a 0.06% decrease, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.13%. CY2605's daily - session closing price was 21,515 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.40% [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The domestic cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the spot basis was generally stable. The ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% [23]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [24]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,269 yuan/500 kg with a 3.57% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,453 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% decrease [27]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 9380 yuan/ton with a 50 decrease, the Sichuan spot price was 9200 yuan/ton with a 150 decrease, and the Guangdong spot price remained unchanged at 10160 yuan/ton [31]. - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [32]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The closing price of PK604 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.64% decrease, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,120 yuan/ton with a 0.61% decrease [34]. - Macro and Industry News: The peanut market in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different degrees of weakening in price and slow trading [35]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].