国新国证期货早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].