动力煤：情绪转弱，短期有回调压力

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of thermal coal has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [1] - The short - term port price of thermal coal is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited due to the high price of imported coal [2] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Coal Prices: In terms of origin prices, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 617.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 70.0 yuan higher than last year); Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 572.0 yuan/ton (-22.0 yuan compared to the previous period, 86.0 yuan higher than last year); Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 645.0 yuan/ton (-6.0 yuan compared to the previous period, 113.0 yuan higher than last year). For port prices, the Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 761.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 96.0 yuan higher than last year); Q5000 is 680.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 88.0 yuan higher than last year); Q4500 is 601.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 75.0 yuan higher than last year). Overseas prices: Indonesia FOB Q3800 is 60.0 dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 10.0 dollars higher than last year); Australia FOB Q5500 is 86.3 dollars/ton (2.7 dollars higher than the previous period, 15.3 dollars higher than last year). The March long - term agreement price for port Q5500 is 682.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period, 4.0 yuan lower than last year); Shanxi Q5500 is 519.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period); Shaanxi Q5500 is 462.0 yuan/ton (1.0 yuan higher than the previous period); Mengxi Q5500 is 433.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at the northern ports) is - 1 [2] 3. Macro and Industry News - On March 30, the sentiment in the port market weakened. Upstream quotations were slightly lowered, downstream demand was weak, and counter - offers and price pressure were obvious, with overall trading being sluggish. Some market participants believe that due to the high inventory at the northern ports, weak downstream demand, combined with the decline in shipping costs and the prices of some coal mines, the willingness of traders to hold up prices has weakened, and quotations have declined. However, the high price of imported coal provides some support for domestic trade [2] - From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output was 76,289 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The average daily output from January to February was 1,293 million tons, a decrease of 117 million tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 4 million tons compared to the same period last year [2]